Moldova

Bulgaria

Friendlies | Fri 05 Jun, 18:00

Moldova v Bulgaria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Moldova face Bulgaria in Friendlies on Fri 05 Jun, 18:00. Bulgaria's recent progression gives them a clear platform heading into this fixture against a winless home team. Bulgaria are experiencing an upward trajectory with three consecutive victories prior to their narrow Montenegro loss. Bulgaria's recent progression point towards a tight tactical battle under defensive reorganisation.

BT4Y match pick

2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams

At 5/4, 2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
Results were poor and defensive vulnerabilities regularly exposed them.
Bulgaria have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the 2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams angle.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for 2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Bulgaria have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the 2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams angle. Results were poor and defensive vulnerabilities regularly exposed them.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 44% implied

Neutral

Bulgaria have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support

Positive

Results were poor and defensive vulnerabilities regularly exposed them.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Moldova Win is the preferred angle because results were poor and defensive vulnerabilities regularly exposed them. Bulgaria have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Moldova Win angle more than a raw possession edge. High-risk strategies might incorporate half-time combinations to seek higher rewards.

Main risk

High-risk strategies might incorporate half-time combinations to seek higher rewards.

Key Data Signals

2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams evidence

Results were poor and defensive vulnerabilities regularly exposed them.

Bulgaria have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Moldova Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams notes

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Moldova1

Avg goals scored

Bulgaria0

Moldova2.5

Avg goals conceded

Bulgaria1

Moldova50%

BTTS rate

Bulgaria0%

Moldova50%

Over 2.5 goals

Bulgaria0%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%

Check odds @ 4

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Moldova and 0% for Bulgaria, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMoldova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

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Moldova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

Moldova to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictions related match prediction player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Moldova1

Avg corners for

Bulgaria-

Moldova5

Avg total corners

Bulgaria-

Moldova1

Avg yellow cards

Bulgaria-

Moldova0

Avg shots

Bulgaria-

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 53% · edge -18.2 pts

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Moldova

Last 50W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 2L

30 Mar 2026A Cyprus2-3

26 Mar 2026H Lithuania0-2

Bulgaria

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

01 Jun 2026H Montenegro0-1

Market aligned with main pickMoldova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%

1.64

Check odds @ 1.64

Moldova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Moldova wins

0Draws

0Bulgaria wins

Market aligned with main pickMoldova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Moldova to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Moldova4

Played

Bulgaria2

Moldova1.3

Avg goals for

Bulgaria1

Moldova2

Avg goals against

Bulgaria1.5

Moldova0

Clean sheets

Bulgaria0

Market aligned with main pickMoldova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

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Moldova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Season data supports Moldova to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Moldova Over 2.5

0%Bulgaria Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Moldova sit at 50% and Bulgaria sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Moldova v Bulgaria Stats

Match Report

2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Moldova

Bulgaria

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Football Stats Hub

Moldova v Bulgaria Stats

Match Report

2: Bulgaria 1-0 (Correct Score) Targeting a precise low-scoring victory aligns directly with the tactical constraints of both teams

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Moldova

Bulgaria

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Prediction context

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