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Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid
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Arsenal crestArsenal

UEFA Champions League | Wed 29 Apr, 20:00

Atletico Madrid v Arsenal Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 02:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Madrid face Arsenal in UEFA Champions League on Wed 29 Apr, 20:00. Arsenal have been dominant at the Emirates, winning five of six Champions League home games and keeping three consecutive clean sheets in all competitions.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Madrid Win

  • At 6/1, Atletico Madrid Win implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London.
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Atletico Madrid.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Madrid Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Atletico Madrid Win sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Atletico Madrid. While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Madrid Win is the preferred angle because while Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Atletico Madrid. It is a straightforward market but carries the risk of late goals or game-state shifts that can alter the result in the final minutes.

Main risk

It is a straightforward market but carries the risk of late goals or game-state shifts that can alter the result in the final minutes.

Key Data Signals

Atletico Madrid Win evidence

While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in.

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Atletico Madrid.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Madrid Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Madrid Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Atletico Madrid2.8
    Avg goals scored
    Arsenal1.4
    Atletico Madrid1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Arsenal0.6
    Atletico Madrid80%
    BTTS rate
    Arsenal40%
    Atletico Madrid80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arsenal20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 27% · edge +43.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 32% · edge +7.8 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Atletico Madrid to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Atletico Madrid3.2
    Avg corners for
    Arsenal7.2
    Atletico Madrid8.6
    Avg total corners
    Arsenal10.4
    Atletico Madrid1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Arsenal0.8
    Atletico Madrid12.6
    Avg shots
    Arsenal15
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 55% · edge -2.6 pts
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Atletico Madrid

    LWLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    14 Apr 2026H Barcelona1-2
    08 Apr 2026A Barcelona2-0
    18 Mar 2026A Tottenham2-3
    10 Mar 2026H Tottenham5-2
    24 Feb 2026H Club Brugge KV4-1

    Arsenal

    DWWDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 108W 2D 0L
    15 Apr 2026H Sporting CP0-0
    07 Apr 2026A Sporting CP1-0
    17 Mar 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-0
    11 Mar 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-1
    28 Jan 2026H Kairat Almaty3-2
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 32% · edge +7.8 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.59
    Check odds @ 1.59
    Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Atletico Madrid wins
    2Draws
    1Arsenal wins
    21 Oct 2025Arsenal v Atletico Madrid4-0
    26 Jul 2018Atletico Madrid v Arsenal1-1
    03 May 2018Atletico Madrid v Arsenal1-0
    26 Apr 2018Arsenal v Atletico Madrid1-1
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 32% · edge +7.8 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Atletico Madrid to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Atletico Madrid16
    Played
    Arsenal15
    Atletico Madrid2.2
    Avg goals for
    Arsenal2
    Atletico Madrid1.8
    Avg goals against
    Arsenal0.5
    Atletico Madrid1
    Clean sheets
    Arsenal9
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 32% · edge +7.8 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Season data supports Atletico Madrid to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal24880019
    14Atletico Madrid1384132
    UEFA Champions League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
    20%Arsenal Over 2.5
    2.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Atletico Madrid sit at 80% and Arsenal sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Atletico Madrid v Arsenal prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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