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Sweden crestSweden
v
Tunisia crestTunisia

World Cup | Mon 15 Jun, 03:00

Sweden v Tunisia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 15:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sweden face Tunisia in World Cup on Mon 15 Jun, 03:00. Group F Opener Could Be Decided by Control, Nerve and One Ruthless Moment. Sweden are highly volatile, scoring consistently but failing to keep a clean sheet in 11 consecutive matches.

BT4Y best bet

Sweden Win

  • At 15/2, Sweden Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • However, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack should exploit the gaps, making a narrow 2-1 result highly plausible in Monterrey.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Sweden Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. However, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack should exploit the gaps, making a narrow 2-1 result highly plausible in Monterrey.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
However, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sweden Win is the preferred angle because however, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack should exploit the gaps, making a narrow 2-1 result highly plausible in Monterrey. You can have a luxury engine up front, but if the back door keeps swinging open, the journey becomes chaotic.

Main risk

You can have a luxury engine up front, but if the back door keeps swinging open, the journey becomes chaotic.

Key Data Signals

Sweden Win evidence

However, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack should exploit the gaps, making a narrow 2-1 result.

What To Watch In The Data

Sweden Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 54% · edge -11.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Sweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Sweden to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sweden-
    Avg goals scored
    Tunisia-
    Sweden-
    Avg goals conceded
    Tunisia-
    Sweden-
    BTTS rate
    Tunisia-
    Sweden-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Tunisia-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 48% · edge +2.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sweden

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Sweden yet.

    Tunisia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Tunisia yet.

    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 54% · edge -11.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Sweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Sweden wins
    0Draws
    0Tunisia wins
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 54% · edge -11.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Sweden to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Sweden4
    Played
    Tunisia3
    Sweden1.8
    Avg goals for
    Tunisia0.7
    Sweden2.5
    Avg goals against
    Tunisia4
    Sweden0
    Clean sheets
    Tunisia0
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 54% · edge -11.1 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Sweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Sweden to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Sweden431110
    4Tunisia03003-10
    2Sweden431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Sweden Over 2.5
    -Tunisia Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    However, Sweden's severe defensive vulnerabilities mean Tunisia's efficient attack should exploit the gaps, making a narrow 2-1 result highly plausible in Monterrey.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Sweden v Tunisia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre