Football Stats Hub

Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Wed 04 Nov, 22:30

Flamengo v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 08:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo, leading Serie A with 73 points, face a crucial home fixture against 15th-placed Gremio, who have struggled this season with just 37 points. Flamengo's attacking prowess is evident, averaging 2.6 goals per game recently, while Gremio's resilience and counter-attacking threat, scoring 1.4 goals per match, suggest an open contest. Both sides have shown a 60% rate of both teams scoring in recent matches, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter with tactical emphasis on offensive transitions and exploiting defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Flamengo averages 2.6 goals and 8.4 shots on target per game recently.
  • Gremio scores 1.4 goals per match with 5 shots on target on average.
  • Both teams have a 60% recent rate of both teams scoring.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.8 over last 10 matches.
  • Flamengo ranks 1st in the league, Gremio 15th, indicating quality gap but open scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 73.3% chance for both teams to score, reflecting Flamengo's potent attack and Gremio's ability to find the net despite defensive frailties. Recent form data shows both teams consistently scoring, supported by Flamengo's 60% BTTS rate and Gremio's matching figure. The at 1.95 offer positive value with a 22% edge, making this a confident pick. Player-level data highlights key attackers like Pedro and Matheus Nascimento who contribute significantly to their teams' goal threats, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Recent BTTS Rate60% both teams
Strong positive
Model Probability66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Player Goal ThreatsPedro 18 goals, Matheus Nascimento 2.9 SOT/90
Positive
League Position GapFlamengo 1st vs Gremio 15th
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability recently, with Flamengo's attacking firepower and Gremio's resilience making both teams to score a logical choice. The data supports an open game where defensive lapses and offensive quality on both sides should lead to goals at each end.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Flamengo's dominant attack combined with Gremio's fighting spirit and goal-scoring capability creates a compelling scenario for both teams to find the net in this Serie A clash.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Flamengo averages 2.6 goals and 8.4 shots on target per game recently.

Gremio scores 1.4 goals per match with 5 shots on target on average.

Both teams have a 60% recent rate of both teams scoring.

H2H average goals stand at 2.8 over last 10 matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, with a strong trend towards matches featuring over 2.5 goals.
  • This suggests a tempo and style of play conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an expectation of goals from both Flamengo and Gremio in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo2.6
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.4
Flamengo1
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.2
Flamengo60%
BTTS rate
Gremio60%
Flamengo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form shows Flamengo scoring 2.6 goals per game and Gremio 1.4, with both teams hitting the net in 60% of their matches. The head-to-head average of 2.8 goals over 10 matches further supports an expectation of goals at both ends, driven by offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Flamengo to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
The 66.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Flamengo show a 60% BTTS rate and Gremio show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 1D 0L
29 Oct 2026A Vasco DA Gama4-1
26 Oct 2026H Atletico-MG3-2
18 Oct 2026A Bahia3-0
11 Oct 2026H Fluminense1-0
08 Oct 2026A Santos2-2

Gremio

WWLDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
30 Oct 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-0
26 Oct 2026A Coritiba1-0
18 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro2-4
11 Oct 2026H Internacional1-1
07 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Flamengo to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Flamengo has accumulated 13 points recently with an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Gremio has 8 points with a lower over 2.5 rate but matching 60% BTTS rate. This recent form data highlights Flamengo's offensive control and Gremio's capacity to score, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Flamengo Over 2.5
20%Gremio Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, with a strong trend towards matches featuring over 2.5 goals. This suggests a tempo and style of play conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, supporting an expectation of goals from both Flamengo and Gremio in this encounter.

Loading deeper match data…