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Lens crestLens
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Como crestComo

UEFA Champions League | Wed 04 Nov, 20:00

Lens v Como Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 12:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Como arrive at Stade Bollaert-Delelis on a five-match winning streak, having scored 13 goals and conceded just three across all competitions. Their Champions League campaign has been impressive, with 10 goals from open play in three matches, including dominant wins over RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Lens, conversely, face defensive struggles, enduring a 16-match Champions League run without a clean sheet and recent losses exposing vulnerabilities. Despite Lens's creative threat through Florian Thauvin, who leads the competition with 15 chances created, Como's superior rhythm and scoring efficiency position them as strong contenders to claim victory in this crucial group stage fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Como to Win

  • Como have won five consecutive matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three.
  • Como scored 10 Champions League goals this season, all from open play, showcasing attacking prowess.
  • Lens have failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 consecutive Champions League matches, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Florian Thauvin leads the competition with 15 chances created, providing Lens with key creative opportunities.
  • Como's recent away victories and strong form give them an edge despite playing on the road.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Como's chances at 70%, reflecting their outstanding recent form and attacking efficiency in Europe. Their ability to score consistently from open play, combined with Lens's ongoing defensive issues and lack of clean sheets, supports the away win prediction. The price at 2.1 offers positive value given the implied chance of 47.6%. Como's momentum and quality in transition and finishing make them a compelling pick, though Lens's home creativity via Thauvin adds some risk to the outcome.

Como recent form5 wins in last 5 matches, 13 goals scored, 3 conceded
Strong positive
Como Champions League scoring10 goals from open play in 3 matches
Strong positive
Lens defensive record16 consecutive CL matches without clean sheet
Strong positive
Florian Thauvin creativity15 chances created in CL, highest in competition
Positive
Price vs model chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Como's superior form and attacking efficiency in the Champions League give them a clear advantage over Lens, whose defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed repeatedly. While Lens's creativity through Thauvin offers hope, Como's momentum and ability to capitalize on defensive lapses make them the likely winners in this fixture.

Main risk

However, their struggles to convert opportunities, compounded by Odsonne Edouard’s adductor surgery, leave them ill-equipped to match the visitors’ scoring rate.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Como's attacking efficiency vs Lens's defensive weaknesses

“Como's dynamic attacking style and recent winning streak position them well to exploit Lens's defensive frailties, especially given Lens's ongoing struggles to keep clean sheets in Europe.”

Key Data Signals

Como to Win evidence

Como have won five consecutive matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three.

Como scored 10 Champions League goals this season, all from open play, showcasing attacking prowess.

Lens have failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 consecutive Champions League matches, highlighting defensive frailty.

Florian Thauvin leads the competition with 15 chances created, providing Lens with key creative opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Como to Win notes

  • Over the last three Champions League matches, Como have averaged over 3 goals per game, with all goals coming from open play, indicating an open, attacking style.
  • Lens's matches have seen frequent goals conceded, contributing to a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals in this fixture, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lens1
Avg goals scored
Como3.33
Lens2.33
Avg goals conceded
Como1.67
Lens33%
BTTS rate
Como100%
Lens67%
Over 2.5 goals
Como100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have shown the ability to score in recent matches, with Como scoring 10 Champions League goals and Lens creating numerous chances through Thauvin. Lens's defensive vulnerabilities and Como's attacking prowess suggest both sides are likely to find the net, making the Both Teams To Score market contextually relevant.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickComo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Como Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 67.4% for Como to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Como have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Lens. A 1-2 scoreline fits Como's strong scoring record and Lens's defensive vulnerabilities, while Lens's creative threat via Thauvin suggests they will score at home.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lens

LLW
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
21 Oct 2026A Club Brugge KV0-3
13 Oct 2026H Sporting CP0-2
10 Sep 2026A Slavia Praha3-2

Como

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
21 Oct 2026H Manchester United4-1
14 Oct 2026A Feyenoord2-3
10 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig4-1
Market aligned with main pickComo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Como Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Como's recent form is outstanding, with five consecutive wins and a strong goal difference of +10 in that span, including dominant European performances. Lens have struggled, winning only 1 of their last 3 matches and conceding multiple goals, reflecting inconsistency and defensive lapses. This form disparity underpins Como's favored status in the match outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Lens Over 2.5
100%Como Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last three Champions League matches, Como have averaged over 3 goals per game, with all goals coming from open play, indicating an open, attacking style. Lens's matches have seen frequent goals conceded, contributing to a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals in this fixture, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.

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