Football Stats Hub

Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

Serie A | Thu 05 Nov, 00:30

Botafogo v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 07:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Atletico-MG traveling to face Botafogo, with Atletico-MG holding a stronger league position and recent form edge. Atletico-MG has accumulated 50 points, sitting 7th, while Botafogo is 13th with 39 points. Atletico-MG's attack is more potent, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared to Botafogo's 0.8, and both teams have similar defensive records. The away side's recent momentum and higher goal output suggest they are well placed to challenge for victory in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico-MG to Win

  • Atletico-MG ranks 7th with 50 points; Botafogo is 13th with 39 points.
  • Atletico-MG averages 1.4 goals per game, Botafogo 0.8, indicating stronger attack.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, suggesting open play.
  • Atletico-MG averages more shots (16) and shots on target (6) than Botafogo (14.6 and 4.8).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Atletico-MG to win with a 59.1% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking statistics. Despite the price being short at 5.25 implying only 19% chance, the model sees significant value due to Atletico-MG's consistent goal threat and better league standing. Both teams show openness in attack, but Atletico-MG's higher shot volume and goal conversion underpin the . No data limitations affect this view, making this a solid value bet with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAtletico-MG gained 7 points recently vs Botafogo's 4
Positive
Attack StrengthAtletico-MG 1.4 goals/game vs Botafogo 0.8
Positive
Shot VolumeAtletico-MG 16 shots/game vs Botafogo 14.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atletico-MG's superior attacking output and recent form make them the likely winners in this Serie A fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Botafogo's lower scoring rate, supports backing the away side for victory. The data and tactical context align well to favor Atletico-MG's win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Atletico-MG's consistent offensive pressure and higher shot accuracy give them a clear edge in this matchup, especially considering Botafogo's struggles to score at home. This combination makes the away win a compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Atletico-MG to Win evidence

Atletico-MG ranks 7th with 50 points; Botafogo is 13th with 39 points.

Atletico-MG averages 1.4 goals per game, Botafogo 0.8, indicating stronger attack.

Both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, suggesting open play.

Atletico-MG averages more shots (16) and shots on target (6) than Botafogo (14.6 and 4.8).

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico-MG to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.7, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters.
  • However, both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting an uptick in attacking tempo and goal opportunities.
  • This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, driven by open play and offensive intent from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo0.8
Avg goals scored
Atletico-MG1.4
Botafogo1.6
Avg goals conceded
Atletico-MG1.4
Botafogo60%
BTTS rate
Atletico-MG60%
Botafogo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in recent matches, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities at both ends. Atletico-MG's higher average goals per game and Botafogo's defensive vulnerabilities indicate a match likely to feature multiple goals and both teams scoring, aligning with attacking tendencies from both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico-MG to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 34% for Atletico-MG to Win sits against roughly 19% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Atletico-MG have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Botafogo.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
29 Oct 2026A Remo1-2
24 Oct 2026A Internacional0-3
17 Oct 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-0
12 Oct 2026A Coritiba1-1
08 Oct 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2

Atletico-MG

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
29 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro0-1
26 Oct 2026A Flamengo2-3
17 Oct 2026H Coritiba1-0
11 Oct 2026H Santos2-1
09 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-2
Market aligned with main pickAtletico-MG to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Atletico-MG has gained 7 points in recent matches compared to Botafogo's 4, reflecting better momentum. This recent form, combined with a higher goal scoring rate and more shots on target, suggests Atletico-MG are in better shape to secure a win. Botafogo's struggles to score consistently at home add to the away side's advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Botafogo Over 2.5
60%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.7, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters. However, both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting an uptick in attacking tempo and goal opportunities. This trend points to a match with potential for multiple goals, driven by open play and offensive intent from both sides.

Loading deeper match data…