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Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano
v
Girona crestGirona

La Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:00

Rayo Vallecano v Girona Stats

Data last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026, 06:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rayo Vallecano face Girona in La Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:00. Rayo are soaring after reaching the Conference League final and have won four of their last five matches.

BT4Y best bet

Rayo Vallecano Win

  • At 7/2, Rayo Vallecano Win implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
  • The home side have also been consistently dangerous in attack at Vallecas.
  • Rayo Vallecano have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Girona.
  • Rayo Vallecano have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rayo Vallecano Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Rayo Vallecano sit 8 in the table, while Girona sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Rayo Vallecano Win sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Rayo Vallecano have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Girona. The home side have also been consistently dangerous in attack at Vallecas.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Rayo Vallecano have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Rayo Vallecano have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
The home side have also been consistently dangerous in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Rayo Vallecano Win is the preferred angle because the home side have also been consistently dangerous in attack at Vallecas. Rayo Vallecano have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Girona. It reflects a side capable of dominating spells but not always ruthless enough to kill games completely.

Main risk

It reflects a side capable of dominating spells but not always ruthless enough to kill games completely.

Key Data Signals

Rayo Vallecano Win evidence

The home side have also been consistently dangerous in attack at Vallecas.

Rayo Vallecano have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Girona.

Rayo Vallecano have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rayo Vallecano Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Rayo Vallecano sit 8 in the table, while Girona sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Rayo Vallecano Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Rayo Vallecano5.8
    Avg corners for
    Girona4
    Rayo Vallecano10.4
    Avg total corners
    Girona8.2
    Rayo Vallecano3.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Girona2
    Rayo Vallecano17.8
    Avg shots
    Girona10
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more La Liga analysisRayo Vallecano v Girona predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Rayo Vallecano1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Girona1
    Rayo Vallecano1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Girona1.4
    Rayo Vallecano20%
    BTTS rate
    Girona60%
    Rayo Vallecano40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Girona40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 33% · edge +26.7 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRayo Vallecano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 40% · edge +32.2 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
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    Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Rayo Vallecano to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Rayo Vallecano

    WDWLW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    03 May 2026A Getafe2-0
    26 Apr 2026H Real Sociedad3-3
    23 Apr 2026H Espanyol1-0
    12 Apr 2026A Mallorca0-3
    03 Apr 2026H Elche1-0

    Girona

    LLLDW
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    01 May 2026H Mallorca0-1
    25 Apr 2026A Valencia1-2
    21 Apr 2026H Real Betis2-3
    10 Apr 2026A Real Madrid1-1
    06 Apr 2026H Villarreal1-0
    Market aligned with main pickRayo Vallecano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 40% · edge +32.2 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
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    Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Rayo Vallecano wins
    3Draws
    3Girona wins
    15 Aug 2025Girona v Rayo Vallecano1-3
    26 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano v Girona2-1
    25 Sep 2024Girona v Rayo Vallecano0-0
    26 Feb 2024Girona v Rayo Vallecano3-0
    17 Jan 2024Girona v Rayo Vallecano3-1
    11 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano v Girona1-2
    Market aligned with main pickRayo Vallecano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 40% · edge +32.2 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Rayo Vallecano to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    La Liga

    Rayo Vallecano38
    Played
    Girona38
    Rayo Vallecano1.1
    Avg goals for
    Girona1
    Rayo Vallecano1.2
    Avg goals against
    Girona1.4
    Rayo Vallecano12
    Clean sheets
    Girona6
    Market aligned with main pickRayo Vallecano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 40% · edge +32.2 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Season data supports Rayo Vallecano to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Rayo Vallecano5038121412-3
    19Girona413891415-16
    Rayo Vallecano sit in position 8, while Girona sit in position 19, so table pressure belongs in the Rayo Vallecano Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
    40%Girona Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Rayo Vallecano sit at 40% and Girona sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Rayo Vallecano v Girona prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

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