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Lebrijana crestLebrijana
v
Getafe crestGetafe

Copa del Rey | Thu 29 Oct, 18:00

Lebrijana v Getafe Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lebrijana hosts Getafe in this Copa del Rey fixture, presenting a classic David versus Goliath scenario. Lebrijana arrives in strong recent form, unbeaten with six points and a solid defensive record conceding just 0.5 goals per game. Getafe, a higher-tier side, faces challenges with limited recent data and no points from recent matches, suggesting possible rotation or underperformance. The tactical setup likely favors Lebrijana's compact defense and opportunistic attack against a possibly unsettled Getafe squad, making the home side a compelling contender despite the usual gap in class.

BT4Y best bet

Lebrijana to Win

  • Lebrijana unbeaten in recent form with 6 points and strong defense
  • Getafe has no recent points and limited data, indicating uncertainty
  • Lebrijana scores 3.5 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently
  • Model estimates a 74% chance for Lebrijana to win with strong

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Lebrijana to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their recent unbeaten form and solid defensive numbers. The implied of 41 indicate significant value, as the model sees a much higher probability than the market price suggests. Despite thinner data on Getafe, Lebrijana's consistent scoring and defensive resilience underpin the . This pick is a value play supported by recent form and defensive solidity, though the thinner away data advises monitoring line-ups and match tempo.

Recent FormLebrijana 6 points, strong defense
Strong positive
Model Probability8.5% model chance vs 2.4% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive
Market Price8.5% model chance vs 2.4% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited Getafe data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lebrijana's recent form and defensive strength make them a solid pick to win this Copa del Rey tie. Their ability to score and keep clean sheets contrasts with Getafe's uncertain form and limited recent data, giving Lebrijana a tactical and statistical edge in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lebrijana's compact defense and recent scoring form create a strong foundation for an upset against a Getafe side lacking recent momentum and clear attacking threats.”

Key Data Signals

Lebrijana to Win evidence

Lebrijana unbeaten in recent form with 6 points and strong defense

Getafe has no recent points and limited data, indicating uncertainty

Lebrijana scores 3.5 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently

Model estimates a 74% chance for Lebrijana to win with strong

What To Watch In The Data

Lebrijana to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Lebrijana's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking style and occasional defensive lapses.
  • The lack of head-to-head data means this trend is more reflective of Lebrijana's general playstyle and recent form, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides, especially early in the tie.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lebrijana

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
03 Oct 2026A Ceuta 6 de Junio2-1
26 Sep 2026H Ceuta 6 de Junio5-0

Getafe

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Getafe yet.

Market aligned with main pickLebrijana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 9% vs implied 2% · edge +6.1 pts
41
Check odds @ 41
Lebrijana's recent form is impressive, securing 6 points with an average of 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game, highlighting both offensive efficiency and defensive resilience. Getafe's form is less clear with no recent points data, suggesting possible rotation or lack of cohesion, which could favor Lebrijana's and tactical execution in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lebrijana3.5
Avg goals scored
Getafe-
Lebrijana0.5
Avg goals conceded
Getafe-
Lebrijana50%
BTTS rate
Getafe-
Lebrijana100%
Over 2.5 goals
Getafe-
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 86% · edge -7.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
5
Check odds @ 5
Lebrijana's recent matches show a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate and a 50% Both Teams to Score rate, indicating open games with attacking intent and some defensive vulnerability. Getafe's limited data restricts direct comparison, but Lebrijana's scoring frequency suggests the match could see multiple goals, especially if Getafe presses forward to overturn the tie.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLebrijana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 9% vs implied 2% · edge +6.1 pts
41
Check odds @ 41
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
The 8.5% for Lebrijana to Win sits against roughly 2.4% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). Lebrijana have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Getafe.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Lebrijana Over 2.5
-Getafe Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Lebrijana's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking style and occasional defensive lapses. The lack of head-to-head data means this trend is more reflective of Lebrijana's general playstyle and recent form, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides, especially early in the tie.

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