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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
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Flamengo crestFlamengo

Serie A | Thu 29 Oct, 23:00

Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Vasco DA Gama hosting Flamengo in a fixture where attacking intent is expected to dominate. Flamengo leads the league and boasts a potent offense, while Vasco DA Gama, positioned mid-table, has shown resilience and occasional goal-scoring bursts. Both teams have recent form indicating openness in matches, with Flamengo's high scoring rate and Vasco's willingness to push forward. The tactical setup suggests a lively encounter with chances at both ends, making goal-scoring opportunities likely throughout the match.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Flamengo averages 2.2 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate this season.
  • Vasco DA Gama has a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Both teams maintain strong shot volumes, with Vasco averaging 20.8 shots and Flamengo 18 per match.
  • Recent form shows Flamengo scoring 2.2 goals and Vasco 2 goals per game, supporting goal potential.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, consistent with an attacking fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a favorable bet with a 63.5% chance, exceeding the implied market chance of 58.8%, indicating a positive . Both teams demonstrate attacking tendencies, with Flamengo's high goal output and Vasco DA Gama's active shot creation supporting a goal-rich game. The balanced defensive records suggest neither side consistently prevents scoring, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. This combination of offensive strength and defensive openness underpins the model's in Over 2.5 Goals for this fixture.

Model Chance63.5% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+4.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance63.5% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+4.7 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge63.5% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+4.7 pts)
Positive
Flamengo Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5 Rate60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and dynamic match where Flamengo's attacking prowess meets Vasco DA Gama's willingness to engage offensively. Flamengo's consistent goal-scoring form combined with Vasco's capacity to generate shots suggests multiple goals are likely. This bet aligns with the tactical and statistical outlook for a lively contest with goal opportunities at both ends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Flamengo's offensive depth and Vasco DA Gama's active shot creation set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Both teams' recent scoring patterns and shot volumes indicate that Over 2.5 Goals is a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Flamengo averages 2.2 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate this season.

Vasco DA Gama has a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Both teams maintain strong shot volumes, with Vasco averaging 20.8 shots and Flamengo 18 per match.

Recent form shows Flamengo scoring 2.2 goals and Vasco 2 goals per game, supporting goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, consistent with the Over 2.5 Goals trend.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a high tempo and attacking intent, with frequent transitions and set-piece opportunities fueling goal chances.
  • This trend panel supports the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama2
Avg goals scored
Flamengo2.2
Vasco DA Gama0.8
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo1
Vasco DA Gama40%
BTTS rate
Flamengo60%
Vasco DA Gama60%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 59% · edge +4.7 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams show strong attacking output with Flamengo averaging 2.2 goals and Vasco DA Gama 2 goals per game. Flamengo's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Vasco's 60% rate indicate frequent high-scoring matches. The moderate BTTS rates reflect openness but also some defensive vulnerabilities, supporting a goal-rich game environment.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 59% · edge +4.7 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Flamengo to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 63.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+4.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Vasco DA Gama and 80% for Flamengo, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Corinthians3-2
18 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo0-1
10 Oct 2026H Remo0-0
08 Oct 2026A Botafogo2-1
20 Sep 2026H Coritiba5-0

Flamengo

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
26 Oct 2026H Atletico-MG3-2
18 Oct 2026A Bahia3-0
11 Oct 2026H Fluminense1-0
08 Oct 2026A Santos2-2
20 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino2-1
Best odds for this sectionFlamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Flamengo to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows Flamengo scoring 2.2 goals per game and Vasco DA Gama 2 goals, with Flamengo accumulating 13 points and Vasco 10 in their last matches. Both teams have Over 2.5 Goals rates above 50%, indicating a trend toward matches with multiple goals. This form supports expectations of an open game with goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
80%Flamengo Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, consistent with the Over 2.5 Goals trend. Both teams' recent matches show a high tempo and attacking intent, with frequent transitions and set-piece opportunities fueling goal chances. This trend panel supports the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.

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