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Reggiana crestReggiana
v
Sambenedettese crestSambenedettese

Serie C - Girone B | Fri 30 Oct, 19:30

Reggiana v Sambenedettese Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone B fixture features Reggiana hosting Sambenedettese, with the away side aiming to overturn their lower league standing. Reggiana sits 6th with 17 points but has struggled offensively, scoring just 0.4 goals per game recently and failing to find the net in their last outings. Sambenedettese, despite being 16th with 10 points, has shown more attacking intent, averaging 1.8 goals per match and boasting an 80% rate of games with over 2.5 goals. The away team’s recent form and attacking style suggest they could exploit Reggiana’s defensive vulnerabilities in this Friday evening clash.

BT4Y best bet

Sambenedettese to Win

  • Sambenedettese holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 5.5 .
  • Reggiana has scored only 0.4 goals per game recently and failed to score in recent matches.
  • Sambenedettese averages 1.8 goals per game and features in 80% of matches with over 2.5 goals.
  • Sambenedettese’s BTTS rate is 100%, indicating consistent offensive output and defensive concessions.
  • Recent form favors Sambenedettese with 8 points gained compared to Reggiana’s 3 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sambenedettese to win due to their superior recent form and attacking output despite their lower league position. Their high over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates reflect an open playing style that contrasts with Reggiana’s low scoring and recent goal drought. The of 5.5 offer significant value given the model’s 70% win probability, highlighting a strong potential upset. No data quality issues reduce , making this a compelling selection based on attacking momentum and defensive frailties.

Recent FormSambenedettese has 8 points vs Reggiana's 3 in recent matches
Strong positive
Goals ScoredSambenedettese 1.8 goals/game vs Reggiana 0.4
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateSambenedettese 80%, Reggiana 0%
Strong positive
BTTS RateSambenedettese 100%, Reggiana 0%
Strong positive
Price Value33.2% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sambenedettese’s recent attacking form and high goal involvement make them a strong candidate for victory despite their league position. Their ability to score consistently contrasts with Reggiana’s scoring struggles, providing a tactical edge that aligns with the data-driven prediction for an away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sambenedettese’s offensive momentum and goal-scoring consistency create a compelling case for an upset here, especially given Reggiana’s recent scoring difficulties and defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Sambenedettese to Win evidence

Sambenedettese holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 5.5 .

Reggiana has scored only 0.4 goals per game recently and failed to score in recent matches.

Sambenedettese averages 1.8 goals per game and features in 80% of matches with over 2.5 goals.

Sambenedettese’s BTTS rate is 100%, indicating consistent offensive output and defensive concessions.

What To Watch In The Data

Sambenedettese to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Sambenedettese’s games have consistently featured over 2.5 goals, reflecting a fast tempo and open play style.
  • The average goals per match in recent head-to-head encounters is 1.8, indicating moderate scoring but with potential for increased goal activity given Sambenedettese’s attacking momentum.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Reggiana0.4
Avg goals scored
Sambenedettese1.8
Reggiana1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sambenedettese1.4
Reggiana0%
BTTS rate
Sambenedettese100%
Reggiana0%
Over 2.5 goals
Sambenedettese80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Sambenedettese’s matches feature a high frequency of goals, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, indicating open games with both teams scoring. Reggiana’s recent matches have been low scoring, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited, making goals likely in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSambenedettese to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Sambenedettese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 33.2% for Sambenedettese to Win sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sambenedettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Reggiana.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Reggiana

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
25 Oct 2026A Grosseto0-2
20 Oct 2026A Pineto0-2
17 Oct 2026H Torres2-0
04 Oct 2026H Spezia0-1
27 Sep 2026A Perugia0-1

Sambenedettese

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Livorno2-1
17 Oct 2026A Vado2-2
11 Oct 2026H Latina1-1
03 Oct 2026A Grosseto3-1
26 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC1-2
Market aligned with main pickSambenedettese to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Sambenedettese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Recent form strongly favors Sambenedettese, who have accumulated 8 points compared to Reggiana’s 3 in their last matches. Sambenedettese’s ability to score and concede goals consistently contrasts with Reggiana’s goal drought, suggesting momentum lies with the away side heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Reggiana Over 2.5
80%Sambenedettese Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Sambenedettese’s games have consistently featured over 2.5 goals, reflecting a fast tempo and open play style. The average goals per match in recent head-to-head encounters is 1.8, indicating moderate scoring but with potential for increased goal activity given Sambenedettese’s attacking momentum.

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