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Al Riyadh crestAl Riyadh
v
Al-Qadisiyah FC crestAl-Qadisiyah FC

Pro League | Thu 29 Oct, 18:00

Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al Riyadh hosts Al-Qadisiyah FC in a Pro League clash where Al-Qadisiyah currently sit third with strong attacking form, while Al Riyadh are 11th, fighting to improve their position. Al Riyadh have shown defensive resilience conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently, contrasting with Al-Qadisiyah's higher scoring but also more porous defense. The match promises tactical tension as Al Riyadh aim to leverage home advantage and solidity against a more attack-minded Al-Qadisiyah side, making the draw no bet on Al Riyadh a compelling option given the stakes and form dynamics.

BT4Y best bet

Al Riyadh Draw No Bet

  • Al Riyadh concede only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength.
  • Al-Qadisiyah average 2.6 goals scored per game but concede 1.4, indicating open games.
  • Al Riyadh's recent points tally (8) shows resilience despite fewer goals scored (1).
  • Al-Qadisiyah have a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, suggesting attacking openness.
  • Al Riyadh's draw no bet price offers strong value with a 23.5% positive .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Al Riyadh Draw No Bet due to their solid defensive record and competitive recent form despite lower scoring output. Al Riyadh's ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Al-Qadisiyah's more open style, which may lead to a close contest where Al Riyadh avoids defeat. The price reflects significant value as the implied chance is well below the model's 45% estimate, making this a strong tactical and statistical play. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Defensive SolidityAl Riyadh concede only 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsAl Riyadh have 8 points recently
Positive
Value Edge36.5% model chance vs 21.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Al-Qadisiyah Attack2.6 goals per game but leaky defense
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al Riyadh's defensive discipline and recent form make the draw no bet a sensible choice in this matchup. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Al-Qadisiyah's attacking style, suggesting Al Riyadh can avoid defeat and possibly capitalize on counterattacks. The data supports a cautious but optimistic stance on Al Riyadh's resilience and value in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and value pricing

“Al Riyadh's defensive organization and home resilience create a strong foundation for avoiding defeat against an offensively inclined Al-Qadisiyah side. This bet captures the tactical balance and value in the market effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Al Riyadh Draw No Bet evidence

Al Riyadh concede only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength.

Al-Qadisiyah average 2.6 goals scored per game but concede 1.4, indicating open games.

Al Riyadh's recent points tally (8) shows resilience despite fewer goals scored (1).

Al-Qadisiyah have a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, suggesting attacking openness.

What To Watch In The Data

Al Riyadh Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.83, indicating moderately open games.
  • Al-Qadisiyah's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Al Riyadh's low rate (20%), suggesting the match could swing either way depending on tactical control.
  • This trend supports a cautious approach favoring defensive resilience and the draw no bet market to mitigate risk.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al Riyadh1
Avg goals scored
Al-Qadisiyah FC2.6
Al Riyadh0.6
Avg goals conceded
Al-Qadisiyah FC1.4
Al Riyadh40%
BTTS rate
Al-Qadisiyah FC60%
Al Riyadh20%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Qadisiyah FC80%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 37% · edge +11.6 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent goal trends show Al Riyadh scoring just 1 goal per game with a low BTTS rate of 40%, while Al-Qadisiyah average 2.6 goals and a 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a game with potential for goals but also defensive organisation from Al Riyadh. The contrasting styles indicate a moderate chance for BTTS and a balanced over/under scenario, aligning with a cautious draw no bet approach.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl Riyadh Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Al Riyadh to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 36.5% for Al Riyadh Draw No Bet sits against roughly 21.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Al-Qadisiyah FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for Al Riyadh.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al Riyadh

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Al Taawon2-1
20 Oct 2026A Al Diriyah0-1
11 Oct 2026A Al-Fayha1-1
13 Sep 2026H Al Kholood2-0
07 Sep 2026A Al Khaleej Saihat0-0

Al-Qadisiyah FC

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
23 Oct 2026H Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-3
20 Oct 2026A Al Taawon1-0
16 Oct 2026H Abha2-1
09 Oct 2026A Al Kholood5-0
11 Sep 2026H Al-Ettifaq3-3
Market aligned with main pickAl Riyadh Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Al Riyadh to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Al Riyadh have accumulated 8 points recently with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with Al-Qadisiyah's 10 points and 2.6 goals scored per game but weaker defense. This form suggests Al Riyadh are competitive and capable of avoiding defeat, justifying in the draw no bet market despite their lower scoring output.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Al Riyadh Over 2.5
80%Al-Qadisiyah FC Over 2.5
2.83H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.83, indicating moderately open games. Al-Qadisiyah's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Al Riyadh's low rate (20%), suggesting the match could swing either way depending on tactical control. This trend supports a cautious approach favoring defensive resilience and the draw no bet market to mitigate risk.

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