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Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Atalanta crestAtalanta

Serie A | Fri 22 May, 19:45

Fiorentina v Atalanta Stats

Data last updated: Sun 28 Jun 2026, 21:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fiorentina face Atalanta in Serie A on Fri 22 May, 19:45. Conversely, Atalanta BC historically struggle at this venue, managing just two wins in their last 24 league visits to Florence. Fiorentina are unbeaten in seven consecutive home Serie A fixtures at the Franchi.

BT4Y best bet

, meaning the selection is successful if the designated team wins or if the match concludes in a draw

  • At 6/1, Fiorentina Win implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 45%.
  • Fiorentina have drawn three of their last six home matches, indicating high draw consistency when holding solid shapes.
  • Fiorentina have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta.
  • Fiorentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Fiorentina Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Fiorentina sit 15 in the table, while Atalanta sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 45% for Fiorentina Win sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Fiorentina have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta. Fiorentina have drawn three of their last six home matches, indicating high draw consistency when holding solid shapes.

Model chance vs price45% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
Fiorentina have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Fiorentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Fiorentina have drawn three of their last six home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Fiorentina Win is the preferred angle because fiorentina have drawn three of their last six home matches, indicating high draw consistency when holding solid shapes. Fiorentina have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina Win evidence

Fiorentina have drawn three of their last six home matches, indicating high draw consistency when holding solid shapes.

Fiorentina have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta.

Fiorentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Fiorentina Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Fiorentina sit 15 in the table, while Atalanta sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Fiorentina0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Atalanta1.2
    Fiorentina1
    Avg goals conceded
    Atalanta1.4
    Fiorentina20%
    BTTS rate
    Atalanta60%
    Fiorentina20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atalanta40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 48% · edge +16.9 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Fiorentina

    WDLDD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 5D 1L
    17 May 2026A Juventus2-0
    10 May 2026H Genoa0-0
    04 May 2026A AS Roma0-4
    26 Apr 2026H Sassuolo0-0
    20 Apr 2026A Lecce1-1

    Atalanta

    LWDLD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    17 May 2026H Bologna0-1
    10 May 2026A AC Milan3-2
    02 May 2026H Genoa0-0
    27 Apr 2026A Cagliari2-3
    18 Apr 2026A AS Roma1-1
    Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 37% · edge +7.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Atalanta59381514915
    15Fiorentina423891514-9
    Fiorentina sit in position 15, while Atalanta sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Fiorentina Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 37% · edge +7.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Fiorentina to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Fiorentina4
    Avg corners for
    Atalanta4.4
    Fiorentina8.4
    Avg total corners
    Atalanta8.4
    Fiorentina2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Atalanta1.6
    Fiorentina10.8
    Avg shots
    Atalanta12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +12.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Fiorentina wins
    1Draws
    4Atalanta wins
    30 Nov 2025Atalanta v Fiorentina2-0
    30 Mar 2025Fiorentina v Atalanta1-0
    15 Sep 2024Atalanta v Fiorentina3-2
    02 Jun 2024Atalanta v Fiorentina2-3
    24 Apr 2024Atalanta v Fiorentina4-1
    03 Apr 2024Fiorentina v Atalanta1-0
    Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 37% · edge +7.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Fiorentina to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Fiorentina38
    Played
    Atalanta38
    Fiorentina1.1
    Avg goals for
    Atalanta1.3
    Fiorentina1.3
    Avg goals against
    Atalanta0.9
    Fiorentina10
    Clean sheets
    Atalanta13
    Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 37% · edge +7.7 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Fiorentina to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Fiorentina Over 2.5
    40%Atalanta Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fiorentina sit at 20% and Atalanta sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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