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Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Atalanta crestAtalanta

Serie A | Thu 29 Oct, 19:45

Fiorentina v Atalanta Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fiorentina host Atalanta at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Thursday evening in a Serie A clash marked by defensive frailties on both sides. Fiorentina have lost their last three league matches, conceding eight goals, while Atalanta have shipped nine goals in their previous three fixtures, despite scoring freely themselves. Both teams face selection challenges, with Atalanta missing key defenders and Fiorentina struggling to convert home advantage into wins. This encounter promises an open, high-scoring contest as both sides seek to arrest poor runs and revive their campaigns.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Atalanta's last three Serie A games have seen 16 goals scored, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Fiorentina have conceded eight goals in their last three league matches, showing defensive struggles.
  • Nikola Krstovic has seven goal involvements in his last three league appearances, posing a significant threat.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates recently: Fiorentina 100%, Atalanta 80%.
  • Recent matches suggest an open game with goals likely at both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance to both teams scoring, reflecting the clear defensive weaknesses and attacking potency of Fiorentina and Atalanta. Recent fixtures show both sides conceding frequently while maintaining strong offensive output, especially Atalanta's 10 goals in their last three games. The 2.0 fairly represent a 50% implied probability, indicating good value given the model's higher chance estimate. This bet aligns with the tactical context of defensive absences and recent high-scoring matches, making it a compelling selection.

Recent Defensive RecordsBoth teams have conceded heavily in last three matches
Strong positive
Attacking OutputAtalanta scored 10 goals in last three games
Strong positive
Player FormNikola Krstovic with 7 goal involvements recently
Positive
Price vs Model Chance76% model chance vs 66.7% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Home/Away FormBoth teams struggling defensively at home and away
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Fiorentina and Atalanta enter this match with defensive vulnerabilities and strong attacking players, making goals at both ends highly likely. Fiorentina's home struggles contrast with Atalanta's potent offense led by Nikola Krstovic, while both teams have conceded frequently recently. This combination of factors supports the expectation of both teams finding the net in an open, competitive fixture.

Main risk

However, that improvement has stalled, leaving the Florence club inside the relegation zone.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two sides with defensive issues but strong attacking threats, especially Atalanta's Krstovic. The tactical setup and recent form suggest an open game where both teams scoring is a logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Atalanta's last three Serie A games have seen 16 goals scored, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Fiorentina have conceded eight goals in their last three league matches, showing defensive struggles.

Nikola Krstovic has seven goal involvements in his last three league appearances, posing a significant threat.

Both teams have high BTTS rates recently: Fiorentina 100%, Atalanta 80%.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.9, indicating a tendency for relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches for both teams have featured frequent goals, with Atalanta's last three games producing 16 goals total.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness conducive to over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina1.6
Avg goals scored
Atalanta2
Fiorentina2
Avg goals conceded
Atalanta2.4
Fiorentina100%
BTTS rate
Atalanta80%
Fiorentina80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atalanta80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams have shown a high frequency of goals conceded and scored recently, with Atalanta's last three matches producing 16 goals and Fiorentina conceding eight in three games. Fiorentina's 100% BTTS rate and Atalanta's 80% rate underline the likelihood of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS selection with an expectation of multiple goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Fiorentina v Atalantacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Atalanta to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 76% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 66.7% implied by the current price (+9.3 pts). Fiorentina show a 100% BTTS rate and Atalanta show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. It removes the necessity for both teams to score, covering a 4-0 outcome, but requires a higher total threshold than Over 2.5 Goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
25 Oct 2026A Inter1-2
18 Oct 2026H Como1-3
10 Oct 2026A Genoa1-2
20 Sep 2026H Napoli1-1
11 Sep 2026A Venezia4-2

Atalanta

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
25 Oct 2026H Frosinone4-4
18 Oct 2026A AC Milan2-3
12 Oct 2026H Venezia3-1
20 Sep 2026A Juventus0-2
12 Sep 2026H Cagliari1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +11.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Atalanta to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data highlights defensive struggles for both teams, with Fiorentina conceding eight goals in their last three matches and Atalanta conceding nine in the same period. Both teams have scored consistently, with Fiorentina scoring in 2 of their last 5 and Atalanta in 3 of 5 matches. The high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates (80% for both) reflect an ongoing trend of open, goal-filled games.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Fiorentina Over 2.5
80%Atalanta Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.9, indicating a tendency for relatively high-scoring encounters. Recent matches for both teams have featured frequent goals, with Atalanta's last three games producing 16 goals total. This trend suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness conducive to over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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