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Serie A | Fri 30 Oct, 00:30

Gremio v Atletico Paranaense Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Paranaense visit Gremio in a Serie A clash where the away side aims to extend their strong recent form against a Gremio team struggling for away wins. Atletico Paranaense have collected 8 points in their last five matches with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, showing attacking potency and resilience. Gremio, ranked 17th, have managed only 6 points and 1 goal scored in the same span, reflecting offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities. The tactical battle will hinge on Atletico Paranaense's ability to exploit Gremio's defensive frailties while managing their own defensive risks, setting up a contest likely to see goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Paranaense to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Atletico Paranaense have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game on average.
  • Gremio have a poor away record with only 6 points from their last 5 games and a 20% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • Both teams have scored in 80% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches, and 60% in Gremio's games.
  • Atletico Paranaense average 17.6 shots and 6.0 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Gremio concede an average of 2.6 yellow cards per game, suggesting a physical defensive approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Atletico Paranaense to win with both teams scoring due to their superior recent form and attacking output compared to Gremio's defensive weaknesses and poor away performance. Atletico Paranaense's high shot volume and goal-scoring consistency align with Gremio's tendency to concede chances and goals, supporting a match with goals at both ends. The 12.6% at 3.75 indicates a strong price opportunity for this combined bet. is moderate at 54%, reflecting some uncertainty but a clear statistical advantage for the away side.

Recent FormAtletico Paranaense stronger with 8 points vs Gremio's 6 in last 5 games
Positive
Goals ScoredAtletico Paranaense 1.8 vs Gremio 1.0 per game
Positive
Goals ConcededGremio concede 1.2 goals per game, Atletico concede 1.4
Neutral
Shots per GameAtletico 17.6 vs Gremio 14.2
Positive
BTTS RateAtletico 80%, Gremio 60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atletico Paranaense's recent attacking form and superior shot creation make them the likely winners, while Gremio's defensive lapses and home struggles suggest both teams will find the net. This bet combines tactical attacking intent with statistical evidence of goals from both sides, making it a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

The sequence is strong, but the 2-2 draw with Remo exposed the issue still preventing Atlético from climbing more decisively.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“Atletico Paranaense's offensive consistency and Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities create a strong case for a high-scoring away win with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Atletico Paranaense to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Atletico Paranaense have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game on average.

Gremio have a poor away record with only 6 points from their last 5 games and a 20% over 2.5 goals rate.

Both teams have scored in 80% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches, and 60% in Gremio's games.

Atletico Paranaense average 17.6 shots and 6.0 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Paranaense to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Atletico Paranaense's matches featuring a 60% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • This trend indicates a moderately high-scoring fixture, driven by Atletico's attacking style and Gremio's defensive concessions, supporting the expectation of multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1
Avg goals scored
Atletico Paranaense1.8
Gremio1.2
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Paranaense1.4
Gremio60%
BTTS rate
Atletico Paranaense80%
Gremio20%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede in recent matches, with Atletico Paranaense scoring 1.8 goals per game and Gremio conceding 1.2. The BTTS rates of 80% for Atletico and 60% for Gremio indicate a strong likelihood of goals at both ends, supported by their attacking and defensive profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 36% for Atletico Paranaense to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 26.7% implied by the current price (+9.3 pts). Atletico Paranaense need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Gremio on 6 and Atletico Paranaense on 8. A 2-1 scoreline fits Atlético's steady 1.3 goals per game and Grêmio's ability to score once, supported by Atlético conceding 1.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisGremio v Atletico Paranaense predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

WLDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 Oct 2026A Coritiba1-0
18 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro2-4
11 Oct 2026H Internacional1-1
07 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
20 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0

Atletico Paranaense

DLWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
24 Oct 2026A Vitoria1-1
17 Oct 2026H Palmeiras0-2
12 Oct 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-1
09 Oct 2026H Atletico-MG2-2
20 Sep 2026H Bahia2-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +14.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Atletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Atletico Paranaense have collected 8 points in their last five matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.4, showing effective offense and moderate defensive resilience. Gremio's 6 points and 1 goal scored in the same period highlight offensive struggles and defensive lapses, reinforcing the expectation of an Atletico Paranaense advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Gremio Over 2.5
60%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Atletico Paranaense's matches featuring a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. This trend indicates a moderately high-scoring fixture, driven by Atletico's attacking style and Gremio's defensive concessions, supporting the expectation of multiple goals.

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