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Al Shabab crestAl Shabab
v
Al-Ahli Jeddah crestAl-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League | Fri 30 Oct, 18:00

Al Shabab v Al-Ahli Jeddah Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al Shabab face Al-Ahli Jeddah in a Saudi Pro League clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Al-Ahli Jeddah, sitting fifth, have been prolific scorers this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game, while Al Shabab, despite their lower table position, maintain an aggressive approach with 1.8 goals per match. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games recently, with Al-Ahli Jeddah boasting a 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Al Shabab at 80%. This fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a potentially goal-laden encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah average 3.2 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form
  • Al Shabab have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season
  • Both teams show high shot volumes, with Al-Ahli Jeddah averaging 15.8 shots per game
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.4 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance against a 45.5% implied market probability, reflecting a 12.5% . Both teams demonstrate strong offensive output and high shot volumes, with Al-Ahli Jeddah particularly prolific in front of goal. The recent form data and season-long scoring patterns support an expectation of multiple goals, making the Over 3.5 Goals market a compelling choice. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form Goal RatesHigh for both teams
Strong positive
Shot VolumeBoth teams average over 15 shots per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both sides pushing forward aggressively. Al-Ahli Jeddah's potent attack combined with Al Shabab's willingness to engage offensively suggests a match ripe for goals. The statistical evidence of high shot counts and goal averages supports betting on Over 3.5 Goals as a sound tactical and data-driven choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking styles

“This fixture showcases two teams with strong attacking profiles and a history of open play, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical expectation given their offensive tendencies and recent scoring trends.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Al-Ahli Jeddah average 3.2 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form

Al Shabab have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season

Both teams show high shot volumes, with Al-Ahli Jeddah averaging 15.8 shots per game

Head-to-head meetings average 3.4 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and season scoring data, suggests a fast tempo and offensive openness, making Over 2.5 Goals a reliable indicator of the likely goal environment in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al Shabab1.8
Avg goals scored
Al-Ahli Jeddah3.2
Al Shabab1
Avg goals conceded
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.4
Al Shabab60%
BTTS rate
Al-Ahli Jeddah80%
Al Shabab80%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Ahli Jeddah100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have demonstrated strong goal-scoring and conceding patterns, with Al-Ahli Jeddah scoring 3.2 goals per game and Al Shabab 1.8. BTTS rates are also elevated, especially for Al-Ahli Jeddah at 80%, indicating both sides frequently find the net. This combination supports a game with multiple goals and mutual scoring chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Al Shabab Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Al Shabab to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Al Shabab and 100% for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al Shabab

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
22 Oct 2026A Al-Fateh3-1
19 Oct 2026H Al-Faisaly FC2-2
11 Oct 2026H Al Taawon3-0
12 Sep 2026H Al-Fayha0-0
09 Sep 2026A Al Kholood1-2

Al-Ahli Jeddah

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
23 Oct 2026H Al Khaleej Saihat4-1
19 Oct 2026A Al-Fayha3-2
09 Oct 2026A Al-Fateh4-0
11 Sep 2026H Al-Hazm3-1
08 Sep 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC2-3
Best odds for this sectionAl-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Al Shabab Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Al Shabab to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows Al-Ahli Jeddah with a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Al Shabab at 80%, reflecting consistent high-scoring matches. Both teams have scored frequently in their last fixtures, with Al-Ahli Jeddah averaging 3.2 goals and Al Shabab 1.8, reinforcing the expectation of an open, goal-rich game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Al Shabab Over 2.5
100%Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and season scoring data, suggests a fast tempo and offensive openness, making Over 2.5 Goals a reliable indicator of the likely goal environment in this match.

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