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Purmersteijn crestPurmersteijn
v
Gemert crestGemert

KNVB Beker | Thu 29 Oct, 19:00

Purmersteijn v Gemert Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This KNVB Beker clash between Purmersteijn and Gemert sets up as a cautious encounter with both sides showing moderate scoring and defensive records in recent matches. Purmersteijn has conceded more goals than Gemert, who have kept clean sheets recently, suggesting a tactical approach focused on defensive solidity. Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for a low to moderate scoring game. The stakes of a cup tie often encourage conservative play, increasing the likelihood of fewer goals.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Purmersteijn concedes 1.5 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Gemert has kept clean sheets recently, showing defensive discipline.
  • Both teams have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting balanced scoring potential.
  • No head-to-head data available, increasing uncertainty.
  • Recent form points are equal, reflecting similar competitive levels.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a value bet with a 54% chance against an implied market chance of 42.6%, reflecting a positive of 11.4%. Both teams have moderate scoring rates but stronger defensive tendencies, especially Gemert's recent clean sheets. The cup setting and lack of prior meetings suggest a cautious tactical battle, supporting a lower-scoring outcome. Data quality is sufficient with no limitations, reinforcing in the model's assessment.

Model Chance54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormGemert clean sheets, Purmersteijn concedes 1.5 goals
Positive
Data QualityNo limitations
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tight, tactical contest with both Purmersteijn and Gemert prioritizing defensive organization. Gemert's recent clean sheets and Purmersteijn's moderate concession rate suggest a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals. The balanced recent form and cup context further support a cautious game with limited scoring opportunities.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals tactical and form rationale

“This fixture looks set for a low-scoring affair given both sides' defensive focus and the cup stakes encouraging caution. Gemert's clean sheets and Purmersteijn's moderate defensive record point to a match where goals will be at a premium.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Purmersteijn concedes 1.5 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Gemert has kept clean sheets recently, showing defensive discipline.

No head-to-head data available, increasing uncertainty.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • No head-to-head history exists between Purmersteijn and Gemert, so trends rely on recent form and competition context.
  • Both teams have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, but the cup setting and defensive records suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals in this specific encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Purmersteijn2.5
Avg goals scored
Gemert2.5
Purmersteijn1.5
Avg goals conceded
Gemert0
Purmersteijn50%
BTTS rate
Gemert0%
Purmersteijn50%
Over 2.5 goals
Gemert50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 43% · edge +11.4 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but Gemert's zero BTTS rate suggests they often keep clean sheets. Purmersteijn concedes more but also scores less, indicating a tendency toward matches with fewer goals and limited both teams scoring outcomes.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Purmersteijn

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
23 Sep 2026A Zwaluwen1-0
02 Sep 2026H Zwaluw VFC4-3

Gemert

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
23 Sep 2026A Ijsselmeervogels3-0
02 Sep 2026A FC 's-Gravenzande2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 62% · edge -0.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gemert to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Gemert Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Purmersteijn to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Purmersteijn Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Recent form shows both teams earning 6 points with similar goal-scoring averages (2.5 goals for Purmersteijn and Gemert) but a notable difference in goals conceded, with Gemert conceding none recently. This defensive solidity from Gemert contrasts with Purmersteijn's more porous defense, favoring a lower-scoring game overall.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Gemert to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Gemert Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Purmersteijn to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Purmersteijn Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 54% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+11.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for Purmersteijn and 50% for Gemert, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Purmersteijn Over 2.5
50%Gemert Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
No head-to-head history exists between Purmersteijn and Gemert, so trends rely on recent form and competition context. Both teams have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, but the cup setting and defensive records suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals in this specific encounter.

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