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Coritiba crestCoritiba
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Vitoria crestVitoria

Serie A | Thu 29 Oct, 22:30

Coritiba v Vitoria Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Coritiba hosting Vitoria in a contest where Vitoria arrives with stronger recent form and attacking output. Vitoria has collected five points in their last few matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game, while Coritiba has struggled with just one point and a low scoring rate of 0.2 goals per game. Vitoria's more potent offense and better defensive record suggest they can exploit Coritiba's vulnerabilities, making this a key opportunity for an away victory in a tightly contested league position.

BT4Y best bet

Vitoria to Win

  • Vitoria has a 70% to win with positive value at 3.25 .
  • Vitoria averages 1.6 goals per game compared to Coritiba's 0.2, showing superior attack.
  • Coritiba concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Vitoria's recent form includes 5 points gained versus Coritiba's 1 point.
  • Vitoria's key attacker Rene has 10 goals and 1.5 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vitoria to win based on their superior recent form, goal-scoring ability, and defensive solidity compared to Coritiba. Vitoria's attacking players, notably Rene and Renato Kayzer, provide a consistent threat with high shot volumes and goal conversion rates. Coritiba's defensive struggles and poor recent results further enhance Vitoria's chances. The of 3.25 offer positive value given the model's 70% win probability, making this a strong, data-backed selection without price caution.

Recent formVitoria 5 points vs Coritiba 1 point
Strong positive
Goal scoringVitoria 1.6 goals/game vs Coritiba 0.2
Strong positive
Defensive recordCoritiba concedes 2.4 goals/game
Positive
Key player impactRene with 10 goals and 1.5 SOT/90
Strong positive
Odds value3.25 odds imply 30.8% chance vs model 70%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vitoria's recent attacking form and defensive stability make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Coritiba's struggles to score and defend effectively provide Vitoria with a clear tactical and statistical edge, supporting the away win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vitoria's attacking efficiency and recent momentum position them well to exploit Coritiba's defensive weaknesses, making the away win a compelling bet backed by both form and player performance data.”

Key Data Signals

Vitoria to Win evidence

Vitoria has a 70% to win with positive value at 3.25 .

Vitoria averages 1.6 goals per game compared to Coritiba's 0.2, showing superior attack.

Coritiba concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Vitoria's recent form includes 5 points gained versus Coritiba's 1 point.

What To Watch In The Data

Vitoria to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a moderately open fixture.
  • Vitoria's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) in recent matches suggests a tendency for more attacking play and goal opportunities, supporting the potential for a decisive result favoring Vitoria.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Coritiba0.2
Avg goals scored
Vitoria1.6
Coritiba2.4
Avg goals conceded
Vitoria1.4
Coritiba20%
BTTS rate
Vitoria80%
Coritiba40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vitoria60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Vitoria's matches show a high BTTS rate of 80% and an over 2.5 goals rate of 60%, while Coritiba's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest a more cautious approach. This contrast indicates potential for goals from Vitoria, with a moderate chance of both teams scoring.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Vitoria Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 45.8% for Vitoria to Win sits against roughly 30.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vitoria have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Coritiba.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Coritiba

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 Oct 2026H Gremio0-1
17 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG0-1
12 Oct 2026H Botafogo1-1
09 Oct 2026A Fluminense0-4
20 Sep 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-5

Vitoria

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-1
20 Oct 2026A Corinthians1-1
11 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo1-2
08 Oct 2026H Chapecoense-sc4-0
20 Sep 2026H Cruzeiro1-3
Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Vitoria Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Vitoria's recent form includes five points gained with a solid goal-scoring record, contrasting with Coritiba's single point and poor offensive output. This momentum difference underpins Vitoria's and likelihood to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Coritiba Over 2.5
60%Vitoria Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a moderately open fixture. Vitoria's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) in recent matches suggests a tendency for more attacking play and goal opportunities, supporting the potential for a decisive result favoring Vitoria.

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