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Cracovia Krakow crestCracovia Krakow
v
Motor Lublin crestMotor Lublin

Ekstraklasa | Fri 30 Oct, 17:00

Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Cracovia Krakow has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Motor Lublin concedes 1.6 but compensates with a potent attack averaging 1.8 goals per match. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, highlighting a likely open and high-scoring encounter. Recent form data suggests Motor Lublin's slightly better momentum, but Cracovia Krakow's home resilience and attacking efforts ensure this fixture promises goal action and tactical battles at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Cracovia Krakow concedes 2.2 goals per game, Motor Lublin concedes 1.6.
  • Average shots per game: Motor Lublin 21.2, Cracovia Krakow 13.4, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 4.5 over 4 matches, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Player data shows multiple attacking threats with high shots on target rates, boosting goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a 74.2% chance, well above the implied market chance of 58.8%, indicating strong value. Both teams have consistently high goal involvement, with Cracovia Krakow conceding heavily and Motor Lublin maintaining a potent attack. Their combined attacking and defensive profiles, plus a high head-to-head average of 4.5 goals, support an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. This match's tempo and shot volumes further reinforce the likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals, making this a compelling selection with standard stake .

Model Chance73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Cracovia Krakow Goals Against2.2 per game
Strong positive
Motor Lublin Goals For1.8 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin have shown defensive frailties and strong offensive output. The high average goals conceded and scored by both teams, combined with their recent form, suggest a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals. This bet aligns well with the tactical openness and attacking roles seen in both squads.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent but porous defenses, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical call given their combined goal involvement and recent high-scoring encounters.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Cracovia Krakow concedes 2.2 goals per game, Motor Lublin concedes 1.6.

Average shots per game: Motor Lublin 21.2, Cracovia Krakow 13.4, indicating attacking pressure.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 4.5 over 4 matches, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.5, a notably high figure.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, reinforcing a trend of open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend panel suggests a fast tempo and frequent scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cracovia Krakow1.6
Avg goals scored
Motor Lublin1.8
Cracovia Krakow2.2
Avg goals conceded
Motor Lublin1.6
Cracovia Krakow100%
BTTS rate
Motor Lublin80%
Cracovia Krakow80%
Over 2.5 goals
Motor Lublin80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have strong goal-scoring and conceding records, with Cracovia Krakow scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.2 goals per game, and Motor Lublin scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.6. BTTS rates are high, especially for Cracovia Krakow at 100%, indicating both sides frequently find the net, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals angle.

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Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Motor Lublin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Motor Lublin to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Cracovia Krakow Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 73.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Cracovia Krakow and 80% for Motor Lublin, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cracovia Krakow

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
24 Oct 2026A Piast Gliwice1-3
17 Oct 2026H Legia Warszawa1-1
10 Oct 2026H Zaglebie Lubin3-1
19 Sep 2026A GKS Katowice2-3
13 Sep 2026A Wisla Plock1-3

Motor Lublin

DWWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
23 Oct 2026H Zaglebie Lubin2-2
17 Oct 2026H Slask Wroclaw3-2
12 Oct 2026A Radomiak Radom3-2
19 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze0-0
11 Sep 2026A Raków Częstochowa1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Motor Lublin to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Cracovia Krakow Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Cracovia Krakow to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form shows Cracovia Krakow with 4 points and Motor Lublin with 8 from their last matches, with both sides maintaining an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Cracovia Krakow's defense has been leaky, and Motor Lublin's attack has been prolific, suggesting momentum favors a high-scoring game continuing.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Cracovia Krakow Over 2.5
80%Motor Lublin Over 2.5
4.5H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.5, a notably high figure. Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, reinforcing a trend of open games with multiple goals. This trend panel suggests a fast tempo and frequent scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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