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Pergolettese crestPergolettese

Serie C - Girone A | Fri 30 Oct, 19:30

Albinoleffe v Pergolettese Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone A fixture features Pergolettese visiting Albinoleffe in a contest where Pergolettese holds a slight edge in the league standings and recent form. Pergolettese sits 7th with 17 points, while Albinoleffe is 10th with 14 points. Pergolettese has been more effective offensively, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Albinoleffe's 1.4, and defensively tighter with 1.2 goals conceded per match versus 1.4. Both teams have shown a tendency for open games, with high BTTS rates, suggesting an engaging tactical battle under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Pergolettese to Win

  • Pergolettese ranks higher in the league and has more points than Albinoleffe.
  • Pergolettese averages 1.8 goals scored per game, outperforming Albinoleffe's 1.4.
  • Pergolettese concedes fewer goals on average (1.2) compared to Albinoleffe (1.4).
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goal exchanges.
  • Pergolettese has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting matches often see multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pergolettese to win with a 66% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league position. Pergolettese's stronger attack and more resilient defense underpin this , supported by high BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals rates indicating lively matches. The of 3.3 offer positive value against the implied 30.3% chance, making this a compelling selection without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Win Probability66%
Strong positive
Pergolettese Goals For1.8 per game
Positive
Pergolettese Goals Against1.2 per game
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams80%
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Pergolettese80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pergolettese's recent form and higher league standing suggest they have the momentum to secure a win against Albinoleffe. Their more potent attack and tighter defense provide a solid foundation for victory, making them the favored side in this competitive Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Team performance and tactical balance

“Pergolettese's balanced approach, combining effective offense with disciplined defense, positions them well to capitalize on this opportunity against Albinoleffe, who have struggled to maintain consistency.”

Key Data Signals

Pergolettese to Win evidence

Pergolettese ranks higher in the league and has more points than Albinoleffe.

Pergolettese averages 1.8 goals scored per game, outperforming Albinoleffe's 1.4.

Pergolettese concedes fewer goals on average (1.2) compared to Albinoleffe (1.4).

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goal exchanges.

What To Watch In The Data

Pergolettese to Win notes

  • Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 1.9 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests.
  • Both teams' recent matches have high Over 2.5 Goals rates, particularly Pergolettese's 80%, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Albinoleffe1.4
Avg goals scored
Pergolettese1.8
Albinoleffe1.4
Avg goals conceded
Pergolettese1.2
Albinoleffe80%
BTTS rate
Pergolettese80%
Albinoleffe60%
Over 2.5 goals
Pergolettese80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, reflecting their attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Pergolettese's matches also feature Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time, indicating a high likelihood of an open game with multiple goals, supporting expectations of an engaging contest with scoring from both sides.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Pergolettese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 45.3% for Pergolettese to Win sits against roughly 30.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Albinoleffe.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Albinoleffe

DDLWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Renate0-0
18 Oct 2026H Novara2-2
10 Oct 2026A Lumezzane2-3
03 Oct 2026A Cittadella2-1
27 Sep 2026H Alcione1-1

Pergolettese

WWWDD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
25 Oct 2026H Lumezzane2-1
18 Oct 2026A Ospitaletto3-2
10 Oct 2026H Athletic Carpi2-1
03 Oct 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-2
26 Sep 2026H Trento0-0
Market aligned with main pickPergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Pergolettese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Pergolettese's recent form outpaces Albinoleffe's, with 11 points compared to 6 in the last matches. This momentum, combined with a higher goal-scoring rate and tighter defense, indicates Pergolettese is better positioned to control the game and secure a positive result.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Albinoleffe Over 2.5
80%Pergolettese Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 1.9 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. Both teams' recent matches have high Over 2.5 Goals rates, particularly Pergolettese's 80%, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.

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