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Newcastle crestNewcastle
v
West Ham crestWest Ham

Premier League | Sun 17 May, 17:30

Newcastle v West Ham Stats

Data last updated: Wed 17 Jun 2026, 05:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle face West Ham in Premier League on Sun 17 May, 17:30. While Newcastle are strong offensively at home, their tendency to drop points from winning positions and a league-high 20 goals conceded in the final 15 minutes suggests West Ham can find a consolation.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: home win, away win, or a draw

  • At 11/10, Newcastle Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Newcastle's dominant home scoring record contrast sharply with West Ham's recent away droughts and relegation pressure.
  • West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Newcastle.
  • West Ham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Newcastle Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Newcastle sit 12 in the table, while West Ham sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: home win, away win, or a draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 28% (-19.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: West Ham Draw No Bet shows a +16.9 pts edge at 2.1.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 28% for Newcastle Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Newcastle. Newcastle's dominant home scoring record contrast sharply with West Ham's recent away droughts and relegation pressure.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Negative
West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7.Visible data support
Positive
West Ham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Newcastle's dominant home scoring record contrast sharply with West.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Newcastle Win is the preferred angle because newcastle's dominant home scoring record contrast sharply with West Ham's recent away droughts and relegation pressure. West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Newcastle. Fans pretend they hate them, but secretly they adore every second.

Main risk

Fans pretend they hate them, but secretly they adore every second.

Key Data Signals

Newcastle Win evidence

Newcastle's dominant home scoring record contrast sharply with West Ham's recent away droughts and relegation pressure.

West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Newcastle.

West Ham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Newcastle Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Newcastle sit 12 in the table, while West Ham sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Newcastle Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Newcastle1.2
    Avg goals scored
    West Ham1.2
    Newcastle1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    West Ham1
    Newcastle80%
    BTTS rate
    West Ham20%
    Newcastle60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    West Ham60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 86% · edge -3.8 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Newcastle and 60% for West Ham, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 47% · edge -18.1 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Newcastle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Newcastle to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Newcastle2.2
    Avg corners for
    West Ham4.8
    Newcastle7
    Avg total corners
    West Ham7.8
    Newcastle2
    Avg yellow cards
    West Ham2.4
    Newcastle12.2
    Avg shots
    West Ham11.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.1 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Newcastle

    DWLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    10 May 2026A Nottingham Forest1-1
    02 May 2026H Brighton3-1
    25 Apr 2026A Arsenal0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
    12 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace1-2

    West Ham

    LLWDW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    10 May 2026H Arsenal0-1
    02 May 2026A Brentford0-3
    25 Apr 2026H Everton2-1
    20 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace0-0
    10 Apr 2026H Wolves4-0
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 47% · edge -18.1 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Newcastle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Newcastle wins
    3Draws
    3West Ham wins
    02 Nov 2025West Ham v Newcastle3-1
    10 Mar 2025West Ham v Newcastle0-1
    25 Nov 2024Newcastle v West Ham0-2
    30 Mar 2024Newcastle v West Ham4-3
    08 Oct 2023West Ham v Newcastle2-2
    05 Apr 2023West Ham v Newcastle1-5
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 47% · edge -18.1 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Newcastle to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Newcastle38
    Played
    West Ham38
    Newcastle1.4
    Avg goals for
    West Ham1.2
    Newcastle1.4
    Avg goals against
    West Ham1.7
    Newcastle8
    Clean sheets
    West Ham7
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 47% · edge -18.1 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Newcastle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Season data supports Newcastle to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    12Newcastle493814717-2
    18West Ham393810919-19
    Newcastle sit in position 12, while West Ham sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Newcastle Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Newcastle Over 2.5
    60%West Ham Over 2.5
    3.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Newcastle sit at 60% and West Ham sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Newcastle v West Ham prediction

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    Betting context

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