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Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.
v
San Lorenzo crestSan Lorenzo

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sun 18 Oct, 22:00

Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

and San Lorenzo meet in a tightly contested Liga Profesional Argentina fixture where both teams sit close in the standings with 14 points each. shows a more attacking style, averaging 3.4 corners per match and a higher goal output, while San Lorenzo tends to play more conservatively but still generates decent set-piece opportunities. The match promises tactical battles with Estudiantes L.P. pushing for territorial advantage and San Lorenzo relying on counter-attacks, setting the stage for a contest with frequent corner situations and physical duels.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • averages 3.4 corners per game, San Lorenzo 4.8, combining for over 8 corners on average.
  • Recent form shows Estudiantes L.P. with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open play and attacking intent.
  • Both teams have moderate fouling rates, suggesting set-piece chances from free kicks and corners.
  • Carabalí averages 3.46 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, indicating active offensive involvement.
  • Burgos contribute high key pass numbers, supporting sustained attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 58.8% chance against an implied market chance of 38.2%, yielding a strong of 20.6%. Both teams generate a combined average of 8.2 corners per game, with Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo showing attacking patterns that lead to frequent set-piece situations. The match context of tactical battles and physical play supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners. is high at 82%, reflecting consistent corner generation and attacking pressure metrics. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Combined average corners per game8.2 corners
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent attacking formEstudiantes L.P. 80% over 2.5 goals rate
Positive
Player offensive involvementHigh shots and key passes from key players
Positive
Confidence level82%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained attacking phases and territorial battles that should produce numerous corners. Estudiantes L.P.'s proactive style combined with San Lorenzo's set-piece threat creates a strong case for Over 9.5 Corners. The data highlights consistent corner generation and attacking intent from both sides, supporting this selection as a tactical and statistical fit.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“This fixture features two teams that generate frequent corners through sustained pressure and attacking intent, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle given their combined average and tactical styles.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Averages 3.4 corners per game, San Lorenzo 4.8, combining for over 8 corners on average.

Recent form shows Estudiantes L.P. With an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open play and attacking intent.

Both teams have moderate fouling rates, suggesting set-piece chances from free kicks and corners.

Carabalí averages 3.46 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, indicating active offensive involvement.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between these teams is 1.4, indicating relatively low scoring but not necessarily low attacking activity.
  • The corner trend is more telling here, as both sides generate frequent corners, suggesting that while goals may be limited, set-piece chances and corners remain plentiful, fitting the Over 9.5 Corners trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estudiantes L.P.1.6
Avg goals scored
San Lorenzo0.6
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Avg goals conceded
San Lorenzo1.2
Estudiantes L.P.60%
BTTS rate
San Lorenzo20%
Estudiantes L.P.80%
Over 2.5 goals
San Lorenzo20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
While Estudiantes L.P. boasts an 80% over 2.5 goals rate indicating open play, San Lorenzo's lower 20% rate suggests a more cautious approach. Both teams' differing BTTS rates imply that goals may come unevenly, but the attacking pressure from Estudiantes L.P. supports a game with multiple goal attempts and set-piece situations.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
San Lorenzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
4
Check odds @ 4
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
San Lorenzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
The 53.2% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). San Lorenzo lead the corner sample at 4.8 per match, with Estudiantes L.P.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estudiantes L.P.

DWLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
10 Oct 2026A Central Cordoba de Santiago2-2
05 Oct 2026H Gimnasia M.3-0
22 Sep 2026A Lanus1-2
12 Sep 2026H Platense2-1
06 Sep 2026A Velez Sarsfield0-1

San Lorenzo

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
11 Oct 2026H Deportivo Riestra1-0
03 Oct 2026A Defensa Y Justicia0-3
20 Sep 2026H Boca Juniors0-2
13 Sep 2026A Independiente1-1
05 Sep 2026H Talleres Cordoba1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 82% · edge -3.8 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
San Lorenzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
4
Check odds @ 4
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
San Lorenzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Recent form data shows Estudiantes L.P. averaging 1.6 goals per game and an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating aggressive attacking play that often leads to corners. San Lorenzo's more conservative 0.6 goals per game and 20% over 2.5 rate suggest a defensive posture, but their corner average remains high, supporting the corner count bet.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
20%San Lorenzo Over 2.5
1.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between these teams is 1.4, indicating relatively low scoring but not necessarily low attacking activity. The corner trend is more telling here, as both sides generate frequent corners, suggesting that while goals may be limited, set-piece chances and corners remain plentiful, fitting the Over 9.5 Corners trend.

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