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Llaneros crestLlaneros
v
Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

Primera A | Mon 19 Oct, 00:05

Llaneros v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Tue 20 Oct 2026, 03:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features Llaneros hosting Santa Fe, with Santa Fe positioned seventh and enjoying a stronger recent run compared to twelfth-placed Llaneros. Santa Fe's defensive solidity and more potent attack, combined with their superior form and league standing, set the stage for a challenging away fixture. Llaneros have struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive resilience, while Santa Fe's tactical discipline and attacking threats make them favorites in this encounter, despite the away setting and typical league unpredictability.

BT4Y best bet

Santa Fe to Win

  • Santa Fe holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong form and squad quality.
  • Llaneros have conceded 1.6 goals per game, while Santa Fe concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive gaps.
  • Santa Fe averages 13 shots per game with key attackers like N. Rodallega posing significant threats.
  • Recent form favors Santa Fe with 12 points compared to Llaneros' 3 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Santa Fe's 70% to win is supported by their superior defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game compared to Llaneros' 1.6. Their attack is more productive, averaging 1.6 goals per match, and key forwards like N. Rodallega have strong goal threat metrics. Llaneros' recent form and lower points tally further tilt the balance. The price offers clear value given the implied chance is only 38.2%, making Santa Fe a compelling selection with solid football reasoning and statistical backing.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthSanta Fe concedes 0.6 goals per game vs Llaneros 1.6
Strong positive
Attacking OutputSanta Fe averages 1.6 goals per game
Positive
Recent FormSanta Fe earned 12 points recently vs Llaneros 3
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santa Fe's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their defensive solidity and attacking efficiency, led by players like N. Bustos, provide a clear edge over Llaneros, who have struggled to maintain consistency and defensive resilience this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Santa Fe's balanced team strengths

“Santa Fe's blend of defensive stability and attacking potency, especially through Bustos and Rodallega, positions them well to capitalize on Llaneros' defensive vulnerabilities in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Santa Fe to Win evidence

Santa Fe holds a 70% to win, reflecting strong form and squad quality.

Llaneros have conceded 1.6 goals per game, while Santa Fe concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive gaps.

Santa Fe averages 13 shots per game with key attackers like N. Rodallega posing significant threats.

Recent form favors Santa Fe with 12 points compared to Llaneros' 3 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Santa Fe to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderately open games.
  • Llaneros' higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Santa Fe's 40%, indicating that while goals are possible, Santa Fe's defensive discipline may limit high-scoring outcomes in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Llaneros1.2
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe1.6
Llaneros1.6
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe0.6
Llaneros60%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe40%
Llaneros60%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends indicate a moderate scoring environment; Llaneros have a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals and BTTS, while Santa Fe's rates are lower at 40%. This suggests potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Santa Fe, aligning with a controlled but effective attacking display.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Llaneros

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
10 Oct 2026A Once Caldas0-1
05 Oct 2026H America de Cali1-2
27 Sep 2026A Cucuta1-2
21 Sep 2026H Atletico Nacional2-0
12 Sep 2026A Internacional de Bogota2-3

Santa Fe

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
06 Oct 2026A Independiente Medellin1-0
29 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pereira2-1
23 Sep 2026H Deportivo Cali0-1
19 Sep 2026A Alianza Valledupar4-1
12 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-0
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Santa Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Santa Fe's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 12 points in their last matches compared to Llaneros' 3. This momentum is underpinned by improved defensive performances and more effective goal scoring, reinforcing Santa Fe's status as favorites in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Santa Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 51.4% for Santa Fe to Win sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Santa Fe have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Llaneros.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Llaneros Over 2.5
40%Santa Fe Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderately open games. Llaneros' higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Santa Fe's 40%, indicating that while goals are possible, Santa Fe's defensive discipline may limit high-scoring outcomes in this match.

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