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Gremio crestGremio
v
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 20:00

Gremio v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruzeiro arrives in strong form and positioned comfortably in the Serie A table, sitting 6th with 48 points, while Gremio struggles near the relegation zone in 18th with 31 points. Cruzeiro's recent performances show a higher goal output and more consistent results, reflecting their attacking and tactical solidity. Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring rate add to the challenge they face at home, making Cruzeiro the clear favorite to secure victory in this clash under pressure for points.

BT4Y best bet

Cruzeiro to Win

  • Cruzeiro holds a strong 6th place in Serie A, well ahead of Gremio in 18th.
  • Cruzeiro averages 2.2 goals per game, outperforming Gremio's 1.0 goals per game.
  • Cruzeiro's recent form yields 9 points compared to Gremio's 3 in the same period.
  • Cruzeiro creates more shots (18) and shots on target (7.4) per game than Gremio (12.4 shots, 4 SOT).
  • Cruzeiro's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, double Gremio's 40%, indicating attacking potency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cruzeiro to win with a 70% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and stronger attacking metrics. Cruzeiro's ability to generate more shots and shots on target per game underlines their offensive threat, while Gremio's defensive record and low scoring output weaken their position. The price at 2.5 offers positive value given the model's and Cruzeiro's consistent performances. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a solid football-backed choice.

Model Chance55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormCruzeiro 9 points vs Gremio 3 points
Strong positive
Goals ForCruzeiro 2.2 vs Gremio 1.0 per game
Strong positive
Shots & SOTCruzeiro 18 shots, 7.4 SOT vs Gremio 12.4 shots, 4 SOT
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateCruzeiro 80% vs Gremio 40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cruzeiro's superior attacking form and higher league standing make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to create more chances and convert them consistently contrasts with Gremio's struggles, suggesting Cruzeiro should secure the three points in this Serie A fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cruzeiro's attacking efficiency and recent momentum position them well to capitalize on Gremio's defensive frailties, making a win for the visitors the most logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Cruzeiro to Win evidence

Cruzeiro holds a strong 6th place in Serie A, well ahead of Gremio in 18th.

Cruzeiro averages 2.2 goals per game, outperforming Gremio's 1.0 goals per game.

Cruzeiro's recent form yields 9 points compared to Gremio's 3 in the same period.

Cruzeiro creates more shots (18) and shots on target (7.4) per game than Gremio (12.4 shots, 4 SOT).

What To Watch In The Data

Cruzeiro to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, aligning with Cruzeiro's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%.
  • This trend suggests a match with attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals and an open game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1
Avg goals scored
Cruzeiro2.2
Gremio1.4
Avg goals conceded
Cruzeiro1.6
Gremio80%
BTTS rate
Cruzeiro80%
Gremio40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams show high BTTS rates at 80%, with Cruzeiro's strong over 2.5 goals rate of 80% indicating a match likely to feature multiple goals. Gremio's lower scoring but high BTTS suggests they concede and score, supporting a goal-rich game scenario.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 55% for Cruzeiro to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for Gremio.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

DDDLL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
11 Oct 2026H Internacional1-1
07 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
20 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
16 Sep 2026A Botafogo2-3
12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2

Cruzeiro

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
13 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino2-4
08 Oct 2026H Sao Paulo2-0
20 Sep 2026A Vitoria3-1
13 Sep 2026A Santos1-2
06 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-1
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Cruzeiro's recent form is markedly superior, securing 9 points with an average of 2.2 goals scored per game, compared to Gremio's 3 points and 1 goal per game. This momentum difference underlines Cruzeiro's and effectiveness in attack and defense over the last fixtures.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gremio Over 2.5
80%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, aligning with Cruzeiro's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%. This trend suggests a match with attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals and an open game.

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