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Avai crestAvai
v
Athletic Club crestAthletic Club

Serie B | Sun 18 Oct, 20:00

Avai v Athletic Club Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Avai and Athletic Club meet in a Serie B clash where disciplinary intensity is expected to be high. Avai, positioned 17th, have conceded 1.4 goals per game and maintain a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open play that can lead to fouls. Athletic Club, ranked 13th, have a more aggressive style, conceding 1.8 goals per game and featuring a 100% BTTS rate, suggesting frequent defensive challenges. Both teams' recent form shows moderate points accumulation but contrasting attacking outputs, setting a stage for a competitive match with potential for multiple cards.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Avai average 4.2 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical defensive approach.
  • Athletic Club average 1.4 yellow cards per game but have players with high card risk indexes.
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers who frequently engage in fouls and challenges.
  • Recent matches show a high likelihood of over 4.5 cards due to tactical intensity and defensive pressure.
  • Player data highlights several Athletic Club players with elevated card risk, supporting the bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 67.4% chance of over 4.5 cards, significantly above the implied market chance of 57.8%, indicating clear value. Avai's high average of 4.2 yellows per game combined with Athletic Club's aggressive style and key players like D. Aponza with high card risk contribute to this forecast. The match's competitive nature and tactical intensity further support a high card count. is strong at 78%, making this a compelling bet with standard stake guidance.

Avai Yellow Cards Average4.2 per game
Strong positive
Athletic Club Player Card RiskHigh for key players like D. Vera and W. Aponza
Strong positive
Model Probability67.4% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+9.6 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance67.4% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+9.6 pts)
Positive
Confidence Level78%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with Avai's defensive approach and Athletic Club's aggressive midfielders likely to generate numerous fouls and cards. The data shows Avai's consistently high card count and Athletic Club's key players' card risks, making over 4.5 cards a tactically and statistically sound prediction for this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

It is more like a stubborn old door: hard to break down, but not always leading somewhere exciting.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture features a clash of styles where Avai's physical defending and Athletic Club's combative midfielders create a perfect storm for multiple cards. The statistical indicators and player profiles strongly suggest a high card count is very likely.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Avai average 4.2 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical defensive approach.

Athletic Club average 1.4 yellow cards per game but have players with high card risk indexes.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers who frequently engage in fouls and challenges.

Recent matches show a high likelihood of over 4.5 cards due to tactical intensity and defensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals were 2.67, indicating open games with attacking tempo.
  • Such matches typically involve more fouls and cards due to transitions and defensive pressure.
  • This trend aligns with the expectation of multiple cards in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avai0.8
Avg goals scored
Athletic Club1.4
Avai1.4
Avg goals conceded
Athletic Club1.8
Avai40%
BTTS rate
Athletic Club100%
Avai60%
Over 2.5 goals
Athletic Club80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 71% · edge +9.7 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams show tendencies toward open, attacking play with Avai's 60% and Athletic Club's 80% over 2.5 goals rates, and Athletic Club's 100% BTTS rate. This attacking openness often leads to more fouls and cards as defenses are stretched, reinforcing the likelihood of a high card count.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Avai Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Athletic Club to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 67.4% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+9.6 pts). Avai have the higher yellow-card average at 4.2, while Athletic Club sit at 1.4. Athletic average 2.93 yellow cards per game and Avaí 2.95, while both sides have collected eight red cards overall.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avai

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
11 Oct 2026A Cuiaba1-0
07 Oct 2026H Londrina2-1
03 Oct 2026H Ceara0-1
27 Sep 2026A Criciuma0-3
20 Sep 2026A Goias1-2

Athletic Club

DLLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
13 Oct 2026H Londrina2-2
07 Oct 2026A Goias1-2
02 Oct 2026H Sport Recife1-2
27 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC2-2
19 Sep 2026H Botafogo SP1-1
Best odds for this sectionAvai Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +12.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Athletic Club to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows Avai earning 6 points with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and an average of 4.2 yellow cards per game, indicating physical matches. Athletic Club's 3 points and 80% over 2.5 goals rate combined with players' card risk profiles suggest continued aggressive play, supporting the over 4.5 cards forecast.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Avai Over 2.5
80%Athletic Club Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals were 2.67, indicating open games with attacking tempo. Such matches typically involve more fouls and cards due to transitions and defensive pressure. This trend aligns with the expectation of multiple cards in this fixture.

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