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Deportivo Cali crestDeportivo Cali
v
Junior crestJunior

Primera A | Mon 19 Oct, 02:10

Deportivo Cali v Junior Stats

Data last updated: Tue 20 Oct 2026, 07:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Cali hosts Junior in a Primera A clash where the home side's strong defensive record and superior recent form set the stage for a competitive encounter. Deportivo Cali ranks third with 25 points, showcasing a solid defense conceding just 0.2 goals per game, while Junior struggles near the bottom with 11 points and a leaky defense allowing 1.8 goals per game. Junior's higher attacking output is offset by inconsistency and defensive vulnerabilities, making this fixture a test of Deportivo Cali's resilience and Junior's ability to break down a disciplined backline.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Cali to Win

  • Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game, the best defensive record in the matchup.
  • Junior averages 17.4 shots per game but concedes 1.8 goals, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Deportivo Cali has earned 13 points recently, more than double Junior's 5 points in the same period.
  • Junior's BTTS rate is 80%, but Deportivo Cali's defensive solidity limits scoring chances.
  • Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd in the league, reflecting consistent form and home advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Cali to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their strong defensive record and recent form advantage. Despite Junior's higher shot volume and attacking threat led by L. Muriel, Deportivo Cali's ability to limit goals against and accumulate points underlines their control in this fixture. The price at 1.91 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 52.4%, making the home win a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Defensive StrengthDeportivo Cali concedes 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent FormDeportivo Cali earned 13 points recently vs Junior's 5
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatJunior averages 17.4 shots per game led by L. Muriel
Neutral
Price Value67.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Cali's disciplined defense and superior recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory against a Junior side that struggles defensively despite attacking promise. The home team's consistency and tactical control should be decisive in this matchup, supported by their strong league position and points tally.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Deportivo Cali's defensive resilience and form advantage provide a solid foundation for a home win, even against Junior's dynamic attackers.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Cali to Win evidence

Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game, the best defensive record in the matchup.

Junior averages 17.4 shots per game but concedes 1.8 goals, indicating defensive frailty.

Deportivo Cali has earned 13 points recently, more than double Junior's 5 points in the same period.

Junior's BTTS rate is 80%, but Deportivo Cali's defensive solidity limits scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Cali to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between these teams is 2.4, with Junior's higher over 2.5 goals rate at 60% contrasting with Deportivo Cali's 40%.
  • This suggests a moderately paced game with potential for goals, but Deportivo Cali's defensive discipline may limit the total goals scored, favoring a controlled tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Cali1.8
Avg goals scored
Junior1.4
Deportivo Cali0.2
Avg goals conceded
Junior1.8
Deportivo Cali20%
BTTS rate
Junior80%
Deportivo Cali40%
Over 2.5 goals
Junior60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Junior's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Deportivo Cali's 20%, highlighting a clash between Junior's attacking tendencies and Deportivo Cali's defensive discipline. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 2.4, suggesting a moderately open game but with a defensive edge favoring fewer goals from the home side.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Cali

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
10 Oct 2026A Deportivo Pereira0-0
03 Oct 2026H Alianza Valledupar3-1
28 Sep 2026H Águilas Doradas2-0
23 Sep 2026A Santa Fe1-0
20 Sep 2026H Cucuta3-0

Junior

DDLLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
14 Oct 2026H Deportivo Pereira1-1
11 Oct 2026H Internacional de Bogota2-2
05 Oct 2026A Bucaramanga1-3
01 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional1-3
27 Sep 2026H Independiente Medellin2-0
Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Deportivo Cali's recent accumulation of 13 points compared to Junior's 5 points underscores a clear momentum advantage. This form differential reflects Deportivo Cali's ability to secure results consistently, particularly through defensive solidity and efficient attacking output, which should influence the match outcome.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 67.6% for Deportivo Cali to Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Deportivo Cali have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Junior.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Deportivo Cali Over 2.5
60%Junior Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between these teams is 2.4, with Junior's higher over 2.5 goals rate at 60% contrasting with Deportivo Cali's 40%. This suggests a moderately paced game with potential for goals, but Deportivo Cali's defensive discipline may limit the total goals scored, favoring a controlled tempo.

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