Football Stats Hub

Monza crestMonza
v
Cagliari crestCagliari

Serie A | Mon 19 Oct, 17:30

Monza v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 22:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza hosts Cagliari in a Serie A clash where defensive frailty and away momentum shape the contest. Monza have conceded 15 goals in six matches, struggling to contain attacks despite scoring in every game. Cagliari arrive in strong form, chasing a club-record fifth consecutive away win, with a disciplined defense conceding only three goals this season. Key absences for Monza, including suspended Lorenzo Lucchesi and injured Matteo Pessina, weaken their backline further. Cagliari's attacking threat, led by Daniel Maldini, is poised to exploit these gaps, while Monza's consistent scoring suggests both teams will find the net in a high-stakes encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Cagliari to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Monza have conceded 15 goals in their last 6 matches, averaging 2.5 goals against per game.
  • Cagliari seek a fifth straight away league victory, showcasing strong away form.
  • Monza have scored in every league match this season, maintaining a 100% scoring rate.
  • Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets but also scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating balanced play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cagliari to win with both teams scoring due to Monza's defensive vulnerabilities and Cagliari's solid away form. Monza's inability to keep clean sheets combined with their consistent scoring supports the BTTS condition. Cagliari's momentum and defensive discipline increase their chances of victory, while Monza's attacking threat ensures they will likely score. The price offers strong value given the 50.3% versus an 18.2% implied probability. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Monza Defensive Frailty15 goals conceded in 6 matches
Strong positive
Cagliari Away Form4 consecutive away wins
Strong positive
Monza Scoring ConsistencyScored in all 6 matches
Positive
Price Value Edge26.2% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cagliari's disciplined defense and potent away form make them the likely winners, while Monza's persistent scoring ensures goals at both ends. This combination of attacking promise and defensive weakness on each side underpins the selection of Cagliari to win with both teams scoring.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Cagliari's ability to maintain defensive solidity on the road while exploiting Monza's defensive gaps creates a compelling scenario for a high-scoring away victory.”

Key Data Signals

Cagliari to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Monza have conceded 15 goals in their last 6 matches, averaging 2.5 goals against per game.

Cagliari seek a fifth straight away league victory, showcasing strong away form.

Monza have scored in every league match this season, maintaining a 100% scoring rate.

Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets but also scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating balanced play.

What To Watch In The Data

Cagliari to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last six matches, Monza has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by defensive lapses and attacking intent.
  • Cagliari's lower 20% rate suggests a more measured approach.
  • The average goals per game in their recent head-to-head is 2.25, supporting a moderate to high scoring expectation fueled by Monza's vulnerabilities and Cagliari's attacking efficiency.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monza1.6
Avg goals scored
Cagliari1
Monza2.2
Avg goals conceded
Cagliari0.6
Monza100%
BTTS rate
Cagliari40%
Monza80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cagliari20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Monza's perfect scoring record and porous defense create a high probability for both teams to find the net. Cagliari's ability to score in 4 of their last 5 matches complements this, making BTTS a logical expectation. The attacking styles and defensive weaknesses suggest a match with multiple goals and scoring opportunities for both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Cagliari to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 26.2% for Cagliari to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+8 pts). Cagliari need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Monza on 4 and Cagliari on 10. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monza

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Lazio1-3
18 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-1
13 Sep 2026A Lecce2-3
06 Sep 2026A Parma1-1
29 Aug 2026H Udinese2-3

Cagliari

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Juventus1-1
19 Sep 2026A Udinese1-0
12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
07 Sep 2026H Lecce1-0
30 Aug 2026H Inter0-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Cagliari to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Cagliari's recent form is impressive, securing 10 points from their last four matches and maintaining a strong defensive record with three clean sheets. Monza's form is less stable, with only 4 points from six matches and a high goals-against average of 2.2 per game. This contrast in momentum and defensive solidity supports the expectation of an away win with goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Monza Over 2.5
20%Cagliari Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last six matches, Monza has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by defensive lapses and attacking intent. Cagliari's lower 20% rate suggests a more measured approach. The average goals per game in their recent head-to-head is 2.25, supporting a moderate to high scoring expectation fueled by Monza's vulnerabilities and Cagliari's attacking efficiency.

Loading deeper match data…