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Bahia crestBahia
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 22:30

Bahia v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 22:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A fixture sees Flamengo, the league leaders with 64 points, visit Bahia, who sit fifth with 49 points. Flamengo's recent form shows a strong attacking output and solid defensive record, while Bahia have been competitive but less consistent. Flamengo's tactical approach emphasizes high pressing and quick transitions, aiming to exploit defensive gaps. Bahia will look to leverage home advantage and disrupt Flamengo's rhythm, but the visitors' superior squad depth and goal threat make them favorites in this key late-season clash.

BT4Y best bet

Flamengo to Win

  • Flamengo leads the league with 64 points, Bahia is fifth with 49 points.
  • Flamengo averages 1.6 goals per game, conceding only 0.8, showing defensive solidity.
  • Bahia scores 1.4 goals per game but concedes 1.2, indicating a more open defense.
  • Flamengo averages 18.6 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, outshooting Bahia significantly.
  • Head-to-head average goals over last 10 matches is 2, supporting a competitive game but Flamengo's edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Flamengo's 61.3% to win reflects their superior league position, stronger recent form, and better attacking and defensive stats compared to Bahia. The team averages more shots and shots on target, indicating greater offensive pressure. Bahia's defensive record is less robust, increasing Flamengo's likelihood of scoring. The price offers positive value with a 13.7% edge, making Flamengo to win a solid selection based on both data and tactical superiority. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability61.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance61.3% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+13.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals For/AgainstFlamengo 1.6/0.8 vs Bahia 1.4/1.2
Positive
Shots and Shots on TargetFlamengo 18.6/6.6 vs Bahia 12.8/4
Strong positive
League StandingsFlamengo 1st, Bahia 5th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Flamengo's consistent attacking threat and defensive discipline make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their superior form and league standing underpin this view, while Bahia's competitive spirit may limit the margin but is unlikely to prevent Flamengo from securing victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Flamengo's balance of offensive firepower and defensive resilience positions them strongly to claim all three points against Bahia, who face a tough challenge containing multiple goal threats.”

Key Data Signals

Flamengo to Win evidence

Flamengo leads the league with 64 points, Bahia is fifth with 49 points.

Flamengo averages 1.6 goals per game, conceding only 0.8, showing defensive solidity.

Bahia scores 1.4 goals per game but concedes 1.2, indicating a more open defense.

Flamengo averages 18.6 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, outshooting Bahia significantly.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, with both teams frequently involved in scoring.
  • This trend suggests a moderately open game with goal opportunities for both sides, aligning with Flamengo's offensive strength and Bahia's capacity to score but also concede.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.4
Avg goals scored
Flamengo1.6
Bahia1.2
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.8
Bahia60%
BTTS rate
Flamengo60%
Bahia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, indicating an open game style. Flamengo's stronger attack and Bahia's tendency to concede suggest goals are likely, with a balanced chance for both sides to find the net.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Flamengo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 61.3% for Flamengo to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+13.7 pts). Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Bahia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
11 Oct 2026H Mirassol1-0
09 Oct 2026A Palmeiras0-1
20 Sep 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-2
15 Sep 2026H Remo2-1
05 Sep 2026A RB Bragantino3-2

Flamengo

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Fluminense1-0
08 Oct 2026A Santos2-2
20 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino2-1
13 Sep 2026H Corinthians2-1
06 Sep 2026A Remo1-0
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Flamengo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Flamengo's recent form shows 13 points collected with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, indicating strong momentum and defensive control. Bahia's 9 points with 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded reflect competitive but less consistent performances, favoring Flamengo's winning chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bahia Over 2.5
60%Flamengo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, with both teams frequently involved in scoring. This trend suggests a moderately open game with goal opportunities for both sides, aligning with Flamengo's offensive strength and Bahia's capacity to score but also concede.

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