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São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Sun 18 Oct, 20:00

São Bernardo v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

São Bernardo and Criciuma meet in a Serie B clash where both teams show contrasting attacking styles that could influence set-piece frequency. São Bernardo averages 4 corners per game, while Criciuma is more aggressive with 8.2, reflecting their higher offensive pressure. Recent form reveals São Bernardo's willingness to push forward, and Criciuma's solid defense may force them into wide play and crosses, increasing corner opportunities. The match's tactical balance and the teams' corner statistics set the stage for a contest likely to produce numerous corners.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Criciuma averages 8.2 corners per game, significantly higher than São Bernardo's 4.
  • Both teams have shown attacking intent, with São Bernardo averaging 10.8 shots and Criciuma 18.4 per match.
  • Recent form supports a high-corner game, with São Bernardo and Criciuma combining for a strong offensive presence.
  • The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating positive value at 1.62 .
  • Player roles and attacking patterns suggest sustained pressure and wide play, increasing corner likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 69% chance against a 61.7% implied market chance, offering a 7.3% edge. Criciuma's high corner average (8.2) combined with São Bernardo's attacking pressure supports frequent set-piece scenarios. Both teams generate numerous shots and wide attacks, increasing corner opportunities. The level at 77% reflects consistent data signals, making this a strong statistical and tactical case for the corners market.

Model Chance69% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+7.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance69% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+7.3 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge69% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+7.3 pts)
Strong positive
Criciuma Corner Average8.2 per game
Strong positive
São Bernardo Corner Average4 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Over 9.5 Corners is a compelling pick given Criciuma's aggressive wing play and São Bernardo's tendency to generate set pieces under pressure. The data shows both teams create numerous wide attacks and shots, which typically lead to corners. This market captures the tactical battle for territory and the likelihood of sustained pressure, making it a sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“This fixture's corner market stands out due to Criciuma's high corner rate and São Bernardo's attacking style, which together suggest a match rich in set-piece opportunities. The statistical edge combined with tactical indicators makes Over 9.5 Corners a smart angle to explore.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Criciuma averages 8.2 corners per game, significantly higher than São Bernardo's 4.

Both teams have shown attacking intent, with São Bernardo averaging 10.8 shots and Criciuma 18.4 per match.

Recent form supports a high-corner game, with São Bernardo and Criciuma combining for a strong offensive presence.

The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating positive value at 1.62 .

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed, with São Bernardo showing a 60% rate and Criciuma only 20%.
  • However, the average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was low at 1.
  • This suggests the match may be more about territorial battles and set-piece chances, which aligns with the high corner count expectation due to sustained wing play and defensive pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

São Bernardo1.4
Avg goals scored
Criciuma1.2
São Bernardo1
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma0.6
São Bernardo60%
BTTS rate
Criciuma0%
São Bernardo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 64% · edge +2.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Goal scoring trends show São Bernardo averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% over 2.5 rate, while Criciuma averages 1.2 goals but only a 20% over 2.5 rate and 0% BTTS. This contrast suggests São Bernardo's attacking intent may force defensive corners, even if goals are moderate, supporting a high corner count without necessarily high scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 74% · edge +1.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Criciuma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
São Bernardo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+7.3 pts). Criciuma lead the corner sample at 8.2 per match, with São Bernardo lower at 4.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

São Bernardo

DLWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
11 Oct 2026A Juventude2-2
06 Oct 2026A Sport Recife1-2
02 Oct 2026H CRB3-1
25 Sep 2026A Novorizontino0-0
19 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-0

Criciuma

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
12 Oct 2026H America Mineiro1-0
08 Oct 2026A Ceara0-1
03 Oct 2026A Londrina2-0
27 Sep 2026H Avai3-0
22 Sep 2026H Operario-PR0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 71% · edge +2.8 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Criciuma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
São Bernardo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows São Bernardo earning 8 points with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking momentum that often translates into more corners. Criciuma has 9 points but a lower over 2.5 rate of 20%, suggesting a more cautious approach. However, Criciuma's high corner average reflects their strategy to create chances from wide areas, supporting the corners market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%São Bernardo Over 2.5
20%Criciuma Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last ten matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed, with São Bernardo showing a 60% rate and Criciuma only 20%. However, the average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was low at 1. This suggests the match may be more about territorial battles and set-piece chances, which aligns with the high corner count expectation due to sustained wing play and defensive pressure.

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