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Al-Fayha crestAl-Fayha
v
Al-Ahli Jeddah crestAl-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League | Mon 19 Oct, 16:05

Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 09:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Fayha hosts Al-Ahli Jeddah in a Pro League clash where Al-Fayha seeks to halt a challenging run near the relegation zone, currently positioned 14th with 7 points. Al-Ahli Jeddah, sitting 6th with 15 points, arrives with stronger recent form and a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals per game. Al-Fayha's tactical approach will likely focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacks to leverage home advantage and avoid defeat, making this fixture a tactical battle with high stakes for Al-Fayha's survival hopes.

BT4Y best bet

Al-Fayha Draw No Bet

  • Al-Fayha has a 45% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 4.4 .
  • Al-Fayha averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah boasts a high 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking strength.
  • Al-Fayha's recent form includes 3 points from last matches, showing some recovery signs.
  • Al-Fayha ranks 14th while Al-Ahli Jeddah is 6th, highlighting the home team's need to secure points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Al-Fayha Draw No Bet due to the significant value at 4.4 compared to a 45% implied chance. Despite Al-Fayha's lower league position and modest scoring, their defensive solidity and home advantage create a realistic chance to avoid defeat. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking prowess is evident, but Al-Fayha's resilience and tactical discipline offer a strong counterbalance. The model at 70% supports this as a calculated value bet with a good risk-reward profile.

Model Chance37.7% model chance vs 22.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance37.7% model chance vs 22.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge37.7% model chance vs 22.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level70%
Positive
Al-Fayha Defensive Record1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al-Fayha's tactical focus on defensive organization and home advantage makes the Draw No Bet selection appealing. Their ability to contain Al-Ahli Jeddah's potent attack while seeking counter opportunities aligns with the data showing a solid defensive record and value in avoiding defeat. This bet balances the risk of Al-Fayha's struggles with their resilience and the high offered.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical resilience and value in Draw No Bet

“Al-Fayha's resilience at home combined with Al-Ahli Jeddah's aggressive style sets up a tactical contest where avoiding defeat is a realistic and valuable outcome for the home side.”

Key Data Signals

Al-Fayha Draw No Bet evidence

Al-Fayha has a 45% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 4.4 .

Al-Fayha averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, showing defensive resilience.

Al-Ahli Jeddah boasts a high 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking strength.

Al-Fayha's recent form includes 3 points from last matches, showing some recovery signs.

What To Watch In The Data

Al-Fayha Draw No Bet notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah's perfect Over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a high-tempo game with attacking intent, while Al-Fayha's lower rate points to a more cautious approach.
  • This trend supports a match with goal opportunities but also defensive efforts from Al-Fayha.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Fayha0.8
Avg goals scored
Al-Ahli Jeddah2.8
Al-Fayha1.4
Avg goals conceded
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.4
Al-Fayha60%
BTTS rate
Al-Ahli Jeddah40%
Al-Fayha40%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Ahli Jeddah100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Al-Ahli Jeddah's 100% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Al-Fayha's 40%, suggesting a likely open game with scoring chances. Al-Fayha's 60% BTTS rate indicates they often concede but also score, supporting a scenario where goals are exchanged but Al-Fayha can still avoid defeat.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Fayha Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Al-Fayha to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 37.7% for Al-Fayha Draw No Bet sits against roughly 22.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Al-Ahli Jeddah have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for Al-Fayha.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Fayha

LDDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 4L
15 Oct 2026A Al Khaleej Saihat0-2
11 Oct 2026H Al Riyadh1-1
12 Sep 2026A Al Shabab0-0
08 Sep 2026A Al-Ittihad FC1-2
03 Sep 2026H Al Kholood2-2

Al-Ahli Jeddah

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 3L
09 Oct 2026A Al-Fateh4-0
11 Sep 2026H Al-Hazm3-1
08 Sep 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC2-3
04 Sep 2026H Al Riyadh5-0
01 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-3
Market aligned with main pickAl-Fayha Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Al-Fayha to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
7
Check odds @ 7
Recent form shows Al-Fayha with 3 points and a modest scoring rate, reflecting struggles but some defensive improvements. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 9 points and high scoring rate underline their offensive momentum. Al-Fayha's form suggests a focus on avoiding defeat, aligning with the Draw No Bet selection as a pragmatic approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Al-Fayha Over 2.5
100%Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals, indicating moderate scoring. Al-Ahli Jeddah's perfect Over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a high-tempo game with attacking intent, while Al-Fayha's lower rate points to a more cautious approach. This trend supports a match with goal opportunities but also defensive efforts from Al-Fayha.

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