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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Santos crestSantos

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 20:00

Fluminense v Santos Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense and Santos meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown attacking intent recently. Fluminense ranks 4th with 51 points, while Santos sits 8th with 42 points, making this a competitive fixture with mid-table implications. Both teams have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game in recent matches, and Santos has a notably high rate of scoring and conceding goals. The match promises open play and offensive opportunities, with both sides likely to push forward in search of valuable points.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Fluminense and Santos both average 1.8 goals scored recently, indicating attacking form.
  • Santos has a 100% BTTS rate in recent games, showing consistent scoring and conceding.
  • Fluminense concedes fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to Santos (1.4), but still allows chances.
  • Both teams have solid shot volumes, with Santos averaging 15.4 shots and Fluminense 12 per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, driven by Santos' perfect recent BTTS rate and Fluminense's consistent attacking output. Santos' aggressive offense and tendency to concede goals align with the BTTS scenario, while Fluminense's balanced attack and defense suggest they can find the net despite a tighter defense. The at 1.75 offer positive value compared to the model's implied 57.1% chance, making this a confident pick without price caution.

Santos BTTS Rate100% recent BTTS rate
Strong positive
Fluminense Goals Scored1.8 goals per game
Positive
Fluminense Goals Conceded1.0 goals per game
Neutral
Price vs Model Chance72.1% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture features two sides with attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams to score a logical choice. Santos' perfect BTTS record and Fluminense's consistent goal threat suggest a lively game with goals at both ends. The data supports an open match where both teams find the net, aligning well with the tactical and form context.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“The attacking profiles of Fluminense and Santos indicate a match ripe for goals at both ends, with Santos' high BTTS rate particularly compelling in this context.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Fluminense and Santos both average 1.8 goals scored recently, indicating attacking form.

Santos has a 100% BTTS rate in recent games, showing consistent scoring and conceding.

Fluminense concedes fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to Santos (1.4), but still allows chances.

Both teams have solid shot volumes, with Santos averaging 15.4 shots and Fluminense 12 per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.9, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Santos' recent 100% BTTS rate and Fluminense's attacking consistency suggest an upward trend in goals and BTTS likelihood.
  • The tempo and offensive intent in recent matches support an Over 2.5 goals environment, complementing the BTTS pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1.8
Avg goals scored
Santos1.8
Fluminense1
Avg goals conceded
Santos1.4
Fluminense40%
BTTS rate
Santos100%
Fluminense60%
Over 2.5 goals
Santos100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form shows Santos scoring and conceding in every match, supporting a BTTS outcome. Fluminense's 40% BTTS rate is lower but balanced by their steady goal scoring of 1.8 per game. Combined, these trends indicate a good likelihood of goals from both teams, with Santos' offensive and defensive openness driving the BTTS scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 72.1% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Fluminense show a 40% BTTS rate and Santos show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
11 Oct 2026A Flamengo0-1
09 Oct 2026H Coritiba4-0
20 Sep 2026A Corinthians3-1
12 Sep 2026A Atletico-MG1-3
06 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0

Santos

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
11 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG1-2
08 Oct 2026H Flamengo2-2
03 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo2-1
19 Sep 2026A Remo2-1
13 Sep 2026H Cruzeiro2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +8.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Fluminense has earned 9 points recently with 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, showing balanced form. Santos has collected 10 points, scoring 1.8 but conceding 1.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability. Santos' 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Fluminense's 40%, but combined recent form data supports an expectation of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Fluminense Over 2.5
100%Santos Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.9, indicating moderate scoring. However, Santos' recent 100% BTTS rate and Fluminense's attacking consistency suggest an upward trend in goals and BTTS likelihood. The tempo and offensive intent in recent matches support an Over 2.5 goals environment, complementing the BTTS pick.

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