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SC Braga crestSC Braga
v
GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente

Primeira Liga | Mon 19 Oct, 20:15

SC Braga v GIL Vicente Stats

Data last updated: Tue 10 Nov 2026, 04:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Braga face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga on Mon 19 Oct, 20:15. 9.9 expected goals: Gil Vicente have generated 9.9 xG in seven league fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

GIL Vicente Asian Handicap +1

  • At 13/2, GIL Vicente Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Carlos Vicens's side have conceded six goals across those two matches, raising questions about their defensive resilience ahead of a Minho derby against opponents.
  • SC Braga show a 60% BTTS rate and GIL Vicente show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • SC Braga average 1 goals scored and GIL Vicente average 0.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for GIL Vicente Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. SC Braga show a 60% BTTS rate and GIL Vicente show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Carlos Vicens's side have conceded six goals across those two matches, raising questions about their defensive resilience ahead of a Minho derby against opponents.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
SC Braga show a 60% BTTS rate and GIL Vicente.Visible data support
Positive
SC Braga average 1 goals scored and GIL Vicente average.Visible data support
Positive
Carlos Vicens's side have conceded six goals across those.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because carlos Vicens's side have conceded six goals across those two matches, raising questions about their defensive resilience ahead of a Minho derby against opponents who have demonstrated an ability. SC Braga show a that shared-scoring rate rate and GIL Vicente show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Carlos Vicens's side have conceded six goals across those two matches, raising questions about their defensive resilience ahead.

SC Braga show a 60% BTTS rate and GIL Vicente show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

SC Braga average 1 goals scored and GIL Vicente average 0.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Braga1
Avg goals scored
GIL Vicente0.6
SC Braga1.2
Avg goals conceded
GIL Vicente1
SC Braga60%
BTTS rate
GIL Vicente40%
SC Braga60%
Over 2.5 goals
GIL Vicente20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
GIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
SC Braga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
SC Braga Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Braga

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
09 Oct 2026H Sporting CP1-3
20 Sep 2026A Santa Clara0-0
14 Sep 2026H Estoril1-0
10 Sep 2026A Estrela1-2
05 Sep 2026A Alverca2-1

GIL Vicente

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
09 Oct 2026A Moreirense1-0
19 Sep 2026H Maritimo1-1
13 Sep 2026A Benfica1-3
06 Sep 2026H Academico Viseu0-1
30 Aug 2026A Famalicao0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +13.9 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
GIL Vicente to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
SC Braga to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
SC Braga Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%SC Braga Over 2.5
20%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Braga sit at 60% and GIL Vicente sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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