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Spain crestSpain
v
Saudi Arabia crestSaudi Arabia

World Cup | Sun 21 Jun, 17:00

Spain v Saudi Arabia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026, 20:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain face Saudi Arabia in World Cup on Sun 21 Jun, 17:00. Spain meet Saudi Arabia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday, 21 June, in a World Cup 2026 fixture that already feels sharper than a routine second group match.

BT4Y best bet

Pass Spain’s broader form remains strong

  • At 31/20, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 39%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • They have conceded 14, an average of 0.88 per game, and their four most recent matches have all finished under 2.5 goals.
  • Saudi Arabia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Spain at 0.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Spain and 100% for Saudi Arabia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 39% implied by the current price. Saudi Arabia are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Spain at 0. They have conceded 14, an average of 0.88 per game, and their four most recent matches have all finished under 2.5 goals.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 39% implied
Strong positive
Saudi Arabia are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 0% for Spain and 100% for Saudi.Visible data support
Positive
They have conceded 14, an average of 0.88 per.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because they have conceded 14, an average of 0.88 per game, and their four most recent matches have all finished under 2.5 goals. Saudi Arabia are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Spain at 0. Both teams began with a point, but the emotional temperature around them is very different.

Main risk

Both teams began with a point, but the emotional temperature around them is very different.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

They have conceded 14, an average of 0.88 per game, and their four most recent matches have all.

Saudi Arabia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Spain at 0.

BTTS rates of 0% for Spain and 100% for Saudi Arabia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Spain11
Avg corners for
Saudi Arabia4
Spain12
Avg total corners
Saudi Arabia18
Spain1
Avg yellow cards
Saudi Arabia1
Spain27
Avg shots
Saudi Arabia7
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spain0
Avg goals scored
Saudi Arabia1
Spain0
Avg goals conceded
Saudi Arabia1
Spain0%
BTTS rate
Saudi Arabia100%
Spain0%
Over 2.5 goals
Saudi Arabia0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 38% · edge +27.8 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSaudi Arabia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 4% · edge +39.7 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
10
Check odds @ 10
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Saudi Arabia to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spain

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Jun 2026H Cape Verde Islands0-0

Saudi Arabia

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Jun 2026H Uruguay1-1
Best odds for this sectionSaudi Arabia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 4% · edge +39.7 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
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DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
10
Check odds @ 10
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Spain wins
0Draws
0Saudi Arabia wins
Best odds for this sectionSaudi Arabia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 4% · edge +39.7 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
10
Check odds @ 10
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Saudi Arabia to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Season team stats

World Cup

Spain6
Played
Saudi Arabia3
Spain1.8
Avg goals for
Saudi Arabia0.3
Spain0.2
Avg goals against
Saudi Arabia1.7
Spain5
Clean sheets
Saudi Arabia1
Best odds for this sectionSaudi Arabia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 4% · edge +39.7 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
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Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.09
Check odds @ 1.09
Season data supports Saudi Arabia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Spain732105
4Saudi Arabia23021-4
World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Spain Over 2.5
0%Saudi Arabia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Spain sit at 0% and Saudi Arabia sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.