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Alcione crestAlcione
v
Lumezzane crestLumezzane

Serie C - Girone A | Fri 06 Nov, 19:30

Alcione v Lumezzane Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alcione hosts Lumezzane in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both teams seek to build momentum. Alcione currently ranks 7th with 18 points, showing stronger recent form and a higher scoring rate than Lumezzane, who sit 11th with 13 points. Alcione's attack has been more potent, averaging 2.2 goals per game compared to Lumezzane's 1.2, while defensively Alcione concedes slightly fewer goals. The home side's consistent ability to find the net and maintain pressure at home sets a competitive tone for this fixture, with Lumezzane aiming to disrupt that rhythm and improve their standing.

BT4Y best bet

Alcione to Win

  • Alcione holds a 64.2% to win, indicating strong in their victory.
  • Alcione averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Lumezzane's 1.2, highlighting attacking superiority.
  • Recent form favors Alcione with 8 points gained versus Lumezzane's 5 in their last matches.
  • Alcione's BTTS rate is 100%, suggesting both teams often score when they play, adding attacking intrigue.
  • Lumezzane's defensive record is slightly weaker, conceding 1.6 goals per game compared to Alcione's 1.4.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Alcione to win due to their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and stronger defensive record compared to Lumezzane. Alcione's home advantage and consistent ability to score create a solid foundation for victory. The 64.2% reflects in their ability to control the match and capitalize on Lumezzane's defensive vulnerabilities. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on clear statistical and tactical indicators.

Recent FormAlcione 8 points vs Lumezzane 5 points
Strong positive
Goals Scored per GameAlcione 2.2 vs Lumezzane 1.2
Strong positive
Goals Conceded per GameAlcione 1.4 vs Lumezzane 1.6
Positive
BTTS RateAlcione 100%, Lumezzane 80%
Positive
Model Win Probability64.2% for Alcione
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Alcione's stronger recent form and higher scoring output make them the logical pick to secure victory in this Serie C fixture. Their ability to maintain pressure and capitalize on Lumezzane's defensive lapses provides a tactical edge, supported by data showing a clear superiority in key performance metrics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Alcione's attacking consistency and home form position them well to dominate this match, while Lumezzane's defensive frailties could be exploited effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Alcione to Win evidence

Alcione holds a 64.2% to win, indicating strong in their victory.

Alcione averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Lumezzane's 1.2, highlighting attacking superiority.

Recent form favors Alcione with 8 points gained versus Lumezzane's 5 in their last matches.

Alcione's BTTS rate is 100%, suggesting both teams often score when they play, adding attacking intrigue.

What To Watch In The Data

Alcione to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.43, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • However, Alcione's recent high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% suggests a potential shift towards more open, attacking games in this fixture, increasing the likelihood of goals and dynamic play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alcione2.2
Avg goals scored
Lumezzane1.2
Alcione1.4
Avg goals conceded
Lumezzane1.6
Alcione100%
BTTS rate
Lumezzane80%
Alcione80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lumezzane60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown a propensity to score, with Alcione boasting a 100% BTTS rate and Lumezzane 80%. Alcione's higher average goals per game (2.2) combined with Lumezzane's attacking threat suggests a match likely to feature goals from both sides, supporting an open game scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlcione to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Alcione Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 63.8% for Alcione to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Alcione have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lumezzane.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alcione

WLWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
31 Oct 2026A Giana Erminio3-1
24 Oct 2026H Athletic Carpi1-2
18 Oct 2026H Desenzano Calvina4-1
11 Oct 2026A Lecco1-1
04 Oct 2026H Trento2-2

Lumezzane

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
01 Nov 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-1
25 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2
17 Oct 2026A Athletic Carpi1-3
13 Oct 2026A Juventus U230-0
10 Oct 2026H Albinoleffe3-2
Market aligned with main pickAlcione to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Alcione Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Alcione's recent form shows 8 points gained with a strong goal-scoring record, indicating momentum and . Lumezzane's 5 points and lower scoring rate reflect a less consistent performance level, suggesting Alcione enters this match with a competitive edge in form and execution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Alcione Over 2.5
60%Lumezzane Over 2.5
1.43H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.43, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. However, Alcione's recent high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% suggests a potential shift towards more open, attacking games in this fixture, increasing the likelihood of goals and dynamic play.

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