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Ligue 1 | Fri 06 Nov, 19:45

Toulouse v Strasbourg Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 18:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse and Strasbourg meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Toulouse has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game recently, while Strasbourg matches the scoring rate but concedes more heavily at 2.2 goals per game. Strasbourg’s perfect 100% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season contrasts with Toulouse’s 60%, setting the stage for a potentially open and high-scoring contest. Both sides sit mid-table with equal points, adding competitive edge without relegation or European pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Toulouse Asian Handicap -0.25

  • Strasbourg has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Toulouse averages 11.2 shots per game, Strasbourg 12.8, indicating attacking activity.
  • Recent form shows Toulouse concedes 1.2 goals per game, Strasbourg 2.2, suggesting defensive frailties.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over last 10 matches, supporting goal expectation.
  • Key players like C. Godo contribute significant goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70.5% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking output and defensive lapses from both teams. Strasbourg’s perfect over rate and high shot volumes from key attackers like M. Amo-Ameyaw increase scoring likelihood. Toulouse’s balanced attack and midfield creativity, led by C. Cásseres with 5 assists and 3.11 key passes per 90, further support goal opportunities. The 2.6 average goals in recent head-to-heads reinforce the expectation of an open game. No price warning applies, making this a solid value bet at 1.62 .

Strasbourg Over 2.5 Rate100% matches over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Toulouse Shots per Game11.2 average shots
Positive
Strasbourg Goals Against2.2 average conceded
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.6 goals per match
Positive
Key Player Goal ThreatC. Tengstedt 0.91 goals/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both teams pushing forward and defensive gaps likely to appear. Strasbourg’s consistent high-scoring matches and Toulouse’s creative midfield suggest multiple goal opportunities. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals as a fitting choice given the attacking profiles and recent trends in this Ligue 1 fixture.

Main risk

Finishing has become an increasingly significant concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture features two teams with attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. Strasbourg’s perfect over rate and Toulouse’s creative playmakers set the stage for an open, goal-rich game.”

Key Data Signals

Toulouse Asian Handicap -0.25 evidence

Strasbourg has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Toulouse averages 11.2 shots per game, Strasbourg 12.8, indicating attacking activity.

Recent form shows Toulouse concedes 1.2 goals per game, Strasbourg 2.2, suggesting defensive frailties.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over last 10 matches, supporting goal expectation.

What To Watch In The Data

Toulouse Asian Handicap -0.25 notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.6 per match, indicating a history of open games between these teams.
  • Recent matches have featured attacking tempo and defensive gaps, with both sides contributing to the goal tally.
  • This trend aligns with the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals in the upcoming fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse1.6
Avg goals scored
Strasbourg1.6
Toulouse1.2
Avg goals conceded
Strasbourg2.2
Toulouse40%
BTTS rate
Strasbourg80%
Toulouse60%
Over 2.5 goals
Strasbourg100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 86% · edge +2.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams have shown tendencies toward high-scoring games, with Strasbourg’s 100% Over 2.5 rate and Toulouse’s 60%. BTTS rates of 80% for Strasbourg and 40% for Toulouse suggest Strasbourg’s goals are more consistent, while Toulouse may be more variable. The average 2.6 goals in their last 10 meetings further supports an expectation of multiple goals and at least one team scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionToulouse Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 63% · edge +14.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Toulouse to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Strasbourg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Strasbourg to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 54.5% for Toulouse Asian Handicap -0.25 sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+4.5 pts). Toulouse's strong expected goals and home defensive record make them favourites against Strasbourg's leaky away defence.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
01 Nov 2026A Marseille0-2
25 Oct 2026H Estac Troyes0-0
16 Oct 2026A Le Mans3-0
10 Oct 2026A Monaco2-2
19 Sep 2026H Le Havre3-2

Strasbourg

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 5L
01 Nov 2026H Auxerre5-1
25 Oct 2026A Rennes0-3
17 Oct 2026H Paris Saint Germain1-3
11 Oct 2026A Nice1-2
19 Sep 2026A Paris FC1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 75% · edge +10.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Toulouse Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Toulouse to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Strasbourg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Strasbourg to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Toulouse scoring 1.6 goals and conceding 1.2 per game, while Strasbourg matches the scoring but concedes 2.2. Strasbourg’s perfect Over 2.5 record this season contrasts with Toulouse’s 60%, indicating Strasbourg’s games are consistently open and high scoring. This trend suggests the fixture is likely to continue the pattern of multiple goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Toulouse Over 2.5
100%Strasbourg Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.6 per match, indicating a history of open games between these teams. Recent matches have featured attacking tempo and defensive gaps, with both sides contributing to the goal tally. This trend aligns with the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals in the upcoming fixture.

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