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Everton crestEverton
v
Coventry crestCoventry

Premier League | Fri 06 Nov, 20:00

Everton v Coventry Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 17:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier League fixture features Everton hosting Coventry in a contest where Coventry's recent momentum and tactical setup suggest a strong chance of an upset. Coventry have been more effective offensively, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Everton's 0.8, and have a higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Everton's struggles to score and their lower recent points tally contrast with Coventry's better form and attacking threat, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with Coventry as confident underdogs.

BT4Y best bet

Coventry to Win

  • Coventry averages 1.8 goals per game, more than double Everton's 0.8.
  • Coventry's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, triple Everton's 20%.
  • Coventry has earned 9 points recently versus Everton's 7.
  • Coventry's recent form includes more BTTS matches (60%) than Everton (20%).
  • Coventry ranks 16th but shows attacking promise against Everton's 7th place.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Coventry to win with a 57% chance, reflecting their superior recent attacking output and form. Coventry's higher goals per game and over 2.5 goals frequency indicate a more dynamic offense capable of breaking down Everton's defense. The price offers strong value given the implied chance is only 21.1%, highlighting a significant edge. This pick is supported by Coventry's momentum and Everton's scoring difficulties, making Coventry a compelling underdog choice with a positive expected return.

Model Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormCoventry better points and goals
Positive
Scoring RatesCoventry 1.8 vs Everton 0.8 goals/game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Coventry's recent attacking form and ability to score in open play make them a credible threat against Everton, who have struggled to find the net. The data shows Coventry's momentum and goal threat outweigh Everton's home standing, suggesting Coventry can capitalize on Everton's scoring issues to secure a valuable win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Coventry's attacking threat and Everton's scoring difficulties

“Coventry's offensive efficiency and recent form create a strong case for an upset here, especially given Everton's scoring struggles and Coventry's ability to convert chances under pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Coventry to Win evidence

Coventry averages 1.8 goals per game, more than double Everton's 0.8.

Coventry's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, triple Everton's 20%.

Coventry has earned 9 points recently versus Everton's 7.

Coventry's recent form includes more BTTS matches (60%) than Everton (20%).

What To Watch In The Data

Coventry to Win notes

  • In the single recent head-to-head, the match featured 3 goals, aligning with Coventry's trend of higher scoring games.
  • The last five matches involving Coventry show a strong tendency for over 2.5 goals, indicating a likely open and attacking encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Everton0.8
Avg goals scored
Coventry1.8
Everton1.2
Avg goals conceded
Coventry1.2
Everton20%
BTTS rate
Coventry60%
Everton20%
Over 2.5 goals
Coventry60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Coventry's matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, contrasting with Everton's 20%. This indicates a more open game likely with goals at both ends, driven by Coventry's attacking style and Everton's defensive vulnerabilities.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCoventry to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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Coventry Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 36.1% for Coventry to Win sits against roughly 21.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Coventry have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Everton. That ability to protect narrow advantages could prove decisive against opponents who have struggled to create opportunities away from home.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Everton

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 2L
02 Nov 2026A Newcastle1-0
24 Oct 2026A Arsenal0-2
17 Oct 2026H Chelsea0-2
11 Oct 2026A Hull City2-2
19 Sep 2026H Ipswich1-0

Coventry

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 6L
31 Oct 2026H Sunderland3-1
24 Oct 2026H Fulham0-1
19 Oct 2026A Tottenham1-3
12 Oct 2026H Newcastle4-1
19 Sep 2026A Nottingham Forest1-0
Market aligned with main pickCoventry to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Coventry Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Coventry has secured 9 points recently with a higher goal output, while Everton has 7 points and struggles to score. Coventry's momentum and from recent results provide a psychological edge heading into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Everton Over 2.5
60%Coventry Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the single recent head-to-head, the match featured 3 goals, aligning with Coventry's trend of higher scoring games. The last five matches involving Coventry show a strong tendency for over 2.5 goals, indicating a likely open and attacking encounter.

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