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Sevilla crestSevilla
v
Alaves crestAlaves

La Liga | Fri 06 Nov, 20:00

Sevilla v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 19:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sevilla and Alaves meet in a tightly poised La Liga clash with both teams level on points and similar records. Sevilla boasts a strong home record against Alaves, unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 league meetings at the Pizjuán. Despite recent inconsistent form, Sevilla’s possession-based style and home advantage position them as favourites. Alaves, struggling away with only two wins and a low scoring rate, rely on defensive resilience and set-piece threat. The match promises a tactical battle with limited attacking breakthroughs, setting the stage for a narrow, low-scoring Sevilla victory.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 51%, above the 24% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Sevilla unbeaten in 10 of last 11 home league games vs Alaves
  • Alaves have only two away wins this season with 0.87 goals per game
  • Sevilla average 1.3 goals per game, Alaves 0.87, indicating low scoring
  • Alaves strong defensively with 29 goals conceded in 23 matches
Price warning

Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 51% while the model sits nearer 24% (-27 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model rates Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a strong pick due to Sevilla’s dominant home record against Alaves and superior offensive output. Alaves’ low scoring rate and defensive solidity support a low-scoring outcome. The model’s 24.3% chance exceeds the implied 16.7% , indicating value. Sevilla’s possession control and home advantage combined with Alaves’ away struggles create a scenario favoring a narrow Sevilla win with limited goals. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Sevilla home controlUnbeaten in 10 of 11 home league games vs Alaves
Strong positive
Alaves away formOnly 2 wins and 0.87 goals per game away
Strong positive
Goal scoring ratesSevilla 1.3 vs Alaves 0.87 goals per game
Positive
Defensive strengthAlaves conceded only 29 goals in 23 matches
Positive
Price value24.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (-27 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sevilla’s strong home record and ability to control possession make them favourites to edge this match. Alaves’ low scoring and defensive discipline suggest a tight game, likely settled by a single goal. Sevilla’s offensive responsibility on Akor Adams and their home advantage underpin the narrow win prediction.

Main risk

However, recent results have exposed vulnerabilities.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring pattern

“Sevilla’s home control and superior attacking consistency set the tone for a narrow victory, but Alaves’ defensive resilience and set-piece threat mean the match will be tight and low scoring.”

Key Data Signals

Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Sevilla unbeaten in 10 of last 11 home league games vs Alaves

Alaves have only two away wins this season with 0.87 goals per game

Sevilla average 1.3 goals per game, Alaves 0.87, indicating low scoring

Alaves strong defensively with 29 goals conceded in 23 matches

What To Watch In The Data

Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent trends show a propensity for under 3 goals, with Alaves’ away halves often ending level, suggesting a tempo favoring defensive organization and limited goal-scoring chances in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sevilla1.6
Avg goals scored
Alaves0.8
Sevilla2.6
Avg goals conceded
Alaves2.2
Sevilla80%
BTTS rate
Alaves80%
Sevilla80%
Over 2.5 goals
Alaves60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams’ low scoring rates and Alaves’ defensive solidity suggest a low-scoring match with a high probability of BTTS No and under 3.5 goals. Alaves’ recent away halves ending in draws further support a cautious, tight game unlikely to produce many goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

La Liga hubfull betting preview for Sevilla v Alavesfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSevilla Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +13.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Sevilla to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 24.3% for Sevilla Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (-27 pts). 3/5: Sevilla have won three of their five La Liga home matches this season.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sevilla

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
01 Nov 2026A Getafe1-3
26 Oct 2026H Osasuna2-0
18 Oct 2026A Real Madrid1-4
12 Oct 2026A Levante3-3
19 Sep 2026H Barcelona1-3

Alaves

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Barcelona1-6
23 Oct 2026H Malaga1-1
18 Oct 2026A Celta Vigo1-2
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
Market aligned with main pickSevilla Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 51% · edge +13.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Sevilla to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Sevilla’s recent form shows only one win in eight matches, highlighting inconsistency but home advantage remains strong. Alaves’ away form is weak with only two wins and low scoring, reinforcing expectations of a tight, low-scoring game. Both teams’ recent output aligns with a cautious approach and limited goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sevilla Over 2.5
60%Alaves Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends show a propensity for under 3 goals, with Alaves’ away halves often ending level, suggesting a tempo favoring defensive organization and limited goal-scoring chances in this fixture.

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