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Ascoli crestAscoli
v
Palermo crestPalermo

Serie B | Fri 06 Nov, 19:30

Ascoli v Palermo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Palermo, the league leaders with 26 points, visiting third-placed Ascoli, who have 19 points. Palermo's attacking prowess is evident, averaging 2.8 goals per game and maintaining a high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, while Ascoli have been more conservative, scoring 1.8 goals per game and showing a low over 2.5 rate of 20%. Palermo's recent form includes 13 points from their last five matches, indicating strong momentum heading into this fixture. The tactical setup suggests Palermo will push to assert control and continue their winning run, while Ascoli will aim to contain and counterattack in a challenging away environment.

BT4Y best bet

Palermo to Win

  • Palermo leads Serie B with 26 points, Ascoli sits third with 19 points.
  • Palermo averages 2.8 goals per game versus Ascoli's 1.8, highlighting stronger attack.
  • Palermo's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, compared to Ascoli's 20%, indicating more open games.
  • Palermo averages 20.6 shots and 6.6 shots on target per match, outshooting Ascoli significantly.
  • Ascoli concedes fewer goals (0.4 per game) but Palermo's offensive firepower is a key factor.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Palermo to win with a 60.3% chance, supported by their superior offensive metrics and league standing. Palermo's high shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast with Ascoli's more defensive profile. The 2.25 offer positive value given the 44.4% implied chance, reflecting in Palermo's ability to secure victory in this matchup. The model's 60% is bolstered by Palermo's recent form and attacking efficiency, making the away win a compelling selection without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Win Probability60.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form Points (Palermo)13 from last 5
Positive
Shots per Game (Palermo)20.6 average
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palermo's attacking strength and current form make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to generate high-quality chances and maintain pressure contrasts with Ascoli's more cautious approach. Data shows Palermo's superior shot and goal metrics underpin their advantage, suggesting they are well-positioned to secure all three points in this encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Palermo's attacking control and form

“Palermo's consistent offensive output and league leadership provide a solid foundation for expecting a win here, especially given their ability to create and convert chances at a higher rate than Ascoli.”

Key Data Signals

Palermo to Win evidence

Palermo leads Serie B with 26 points, Ascoli sits third with 19 points.

Palermo averages 2.8 goals per game versus Ascoli's 1.8, highlighting stronger attack.

Palermo's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, compared to Ascoli's 20%, indicating more open games.

Palermo averages 20.6 shots and 6.6 shots on target per match, outshooting Ascoli significantly.

What To Watch In The Data

Palermo to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a tendency for open matches with multiple goals.
  • Palermo's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent matches aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking game that could produce several goals.
  • This trend supports expectations for an entertaining, goal-rich fixture with Palermo likely to be the main attacking force.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ascoli1.8
Avg goals scored
Palermo2.8
Ascoli0.4
Avg goals conceded
Palermo1.4
Ascoli40%
BTTS rate
Palermo80%
Ascoli20%
Over 2.5 goals
Palermo80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Palermo's matches frequently feature goals, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open, attacking games. In contrast, Ascoli's matches are generally lower scoring with a 20% over 2.5 rate and 40% BTTS. This disparity suggests Palermo's offensive approach will likely lead to a higher scoring game, supporting expectations for goals and both teams scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 59.4% for Palermo to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Ascoli.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ascoli

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
01 Nov 2026A Arezzo0-0
27 Oct 2026H Sampdoria2-0
24 Oct 2026A Catanzaro6-1
17 Oct 2026H Empoli1-1
10 Oct 2026A Sudtirol0-0

Palermo

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
01 Nov 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-1
28 Oct 2026A Pisa3-3
25 Oct 2026H Carrarese2-1
17 Oct 2026A Mantova2-0
10 Oct 2026A Empoli4-2
Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Palermo's recent form is strong, securing 13 points in their last five matches, demonstrating consistent winning performances and offensive efficiency. Ascoli has earned 9 points in the same period, showing competitiveness but less control. This form gap highlights Palermo's momentum and , reinforcing their status as favorites to win this fixture based on current performance trends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Ascoli Over 2.5
80%Palermo Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a tendency for open matches with multiple goals. Palermo's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent matches aligns with this trend, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking game that could produce several goals. This trend supports expectations for an entertaining, goal-rich fixture with Palermo likely to be the main attacking force.

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