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Bolton crestBolton

Championship | Fri 06 Nov, 20:00

Derby v Bolton Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolton enters this Championship clash with a clear form advantage, having secured 17 points compared to Derby's 7, reflecting a more consistent and effective performance in recent matches. Bolton's attack, averaging 1.4 goals per game, contrasts with Derby's struggles, scoring just 0.6 on average, while defensively Bolton concedes fewer goals, indicating a more balanced side. This match presents Bolton with an opportunity to extend their positive momentum against a Derby side facing challenges in both scoring and defensive stability. Tactical discipline and attacking efficiency will be key factors in this contest under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Bolton to Win

  • Bolton holds a 70% to win with strong value at 2.7 .
  • Derby averages only 0.6 goals per game, struggling offensively this season.
  • Bolton concedes fewer goals (1.8) than Derby (2.8), showing better defensive resilience.
  • Bolton’s recent form yields 7 points versus Derby’s 1 point in last five matches.
  • Key Bolton attackers like Ruben Rodrigues and J. Nelson show strong shot and assist metrics.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Bolton's superior recent form and balanced attack-defense profile underpin the 70% to win, supported by a significant at 2.7 . The team’s higher goal output and tighter defense contrast with Derby’s struggles, while key players like Ruben Rodrigues and J. Nelson provide creative and shooting threats. This combination of form, player quality, and defensive solidity makes Bolton a compelling pick despite the away venue. No price warnings apply, and standard stake guidance is appropriate.

Recent FormBolton 7 points vs Derby 1 point in last five matches
Strong positive
Goal ScoringBolton 1.4 goals/game vs Derby 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive RecordBolton concedes 1.8 goals/game vs Derby 2.8
Positive
Key Player ImpactRuben Rodrigues 4.12 key passes/90, J. Nelson 2.23 SOT/90
Positive
Market ValueOdds 2.7 imply 37% chance vs model 70% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bolton’s consistent recent performances and stronger defensive record position them well to claim victory against a struggling Derby side. The attacking contributions from Ruben Rodrigues and J. Nelson add creative depth and goal threat, complementing Bolton’s overall team balance and making them the favored side in this matchup.

Main risk

However, Bolton face an awkward historical challenge.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Team strength and player impact

“Bolton’s blend of attacking creativity and defensive solidity, highlighted by key players like Rodrigues and Nelson, gives them a clear edge over Derby’s inconsistent form and leaky defense in this Championship fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Bolton to Win evidence

Bolton holds a 70% to win with strong value at 2.7 .

Derby averages only 0.6 goals per game, struggling offensively this season.

Bolton concedes fewer goals (1.8) than Derby (2.8), showing better defensive resilience.

Bolton’s recent form yields 7 points versus Derby’s 1 point in last five matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Bolton to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, with both teams showing a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent games.
  • This suggests a moderately open game with opportunities for goals, but Bolton’s better defensive record may limit Derby’s scoring chances, favoring a Bolton win with controlled goal flow.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derby0.6
Avg goals scored
Bolton1.4
Derby2.8
Avg goals conceded
Bolton1.8
Derby60%
BTTS rate
Bolton60%
Derby60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bolton60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have a 60% rate for matches over 2.5 goals and BTTS, but Bolton’s higher average goals scored and tighter defense suggest a match where Bolton’s attack can break through while limiting Derby’s scoring chances, supporting a Bolton win without necessarily high BTTS risk.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBolton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 52% for Bolton to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bolton have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Derby. Derby conceded eight goals in last two games while Bolton have scored regularly away.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisDerby v Bolton predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derby

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
03 Nov 2026H Norwich0-4
31 Oct 2026A Millwall1-4
24 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd1-1
17 Oct 2026H Stoke City0-1
14 Oct 2026A QPR1-4

Bolton

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
03 Nov 2026A Charlton1-0
31 Oct 2026H Bristol City2-3
23 Oct 2026H Middlesbrough1-5
17 Oct 2026A Southampton0-0
13 Oct 2026A Wolves3-1
Market aligned with main pickBolton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bolton’s recent form is markedly superior, earning 7 points in the last five matches compared to Derby’s single point. This momentum reflects better tactical execution and , which is likely to influence the match outcome in Bolton’s favor, especially given Derby’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Derby Over 2.5
60%Bolton Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, with both teams showing a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent games. This suggests a moderately open game with opportunities for goals, but Bolton’s better defensive record may limit Derby’s scoring chances, favoring a Bolton win with controlled goal flow.

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