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Vitoria crestVitoria
v
Fluminense crestFluminense

Serie A | Fri 06 Nov, 23:00

Vitoria v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Vitoria hosting Fluminense in a match where both sides have shown a tendency to find the net recently. Vitoria, positioned 15th, have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while Fluminense, sitting 4th, boast a slightly higher scoring rate of 1.6 goals per match with a similar defensive record. Both teams have a 60% rate of scoring and conceding in recent fixtures, suggesting an open game with attacking intent from both sides. The stakes are significant as Fluminense push for top positions and Vitoria aim to climb away from relegation danger.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate in recent matches.
  • Fluminense averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
  • Vitoria scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.2 on average recently.
  • Recent matches show balanced attacking and defensive output from both sides.
  • Fluminense ranks 4th with strong offensive players contributing consistently.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.3% chance for both teams to score, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating strong value. Both sides have similar defensive vulnerabilities and consistent attacking output, with Vitoria and Fluminense each scoring and conceding at least one goal in 60% of recent games. Fluminense's attacking trio, including John Kennedy and Hulk, provide significant goal threat, while Vitoria's forwards like Rene and Renato Kayzer also contribute regularly. This balance supports an expectation of goals at both ends, making BTTS a compelling selection.

Model Probability70.6% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent BTTS Rate60% both teams
Positive
Attacking OutputVitoria 1.4, Fluminense 1.6 goals/game
Positive
Defensive ConcessionBoth concede ~1.2 goals/game
Positive
Key Players ImpactJohn Kennedy (0.71 goals/90), Hulk (0.57 goals/90)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated reliable scoring and conceding patterns, with Fluminense's attacking strength and Vitoria's resilience suggesting goals at both ends. The balanced recent form and player contributions support a lively match where both sides find the net, making Both Teams to Score a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two sides with consistent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, making a Both Teams to Score outcome highly plausible given their recent performances and key player involvement.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate in recent matches.

Fluminense averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Vitoria scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.2 on average recently.

Recent matches show balanced attacking and defensive output from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.5, with a frequent occurrence of both teams scoring.
  • Fluminense's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating high-tempo games with multiple scoring chances.
  • Vitoria's lower over 2.5 rate of 40% suggests more conservative matches, but combined trends point to a fixture likely to feature goals from both sides due to attacking intent and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vitoria1.4
Avg goals scored
Fluminense1.6
Vitoria1.2
Avg goals conceded
Fluminense1.2
Vitoria60%
BTTS rate
Fluminense60%
Vitoria40%
Over 2.5 goals
Fluminense80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have a 60% recent BTTS rate, supported by Vitoria's 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game and Fluminense's 1.6 goals scored with a similar concession rate. This pattern indicates open games with goals at both ends. The average goals per match in their last 10 meetings is 2.5, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals and mutual scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Vitoria to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Vitoria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 70.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vitoria show a 60% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vitoria

LDDLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Coritiba0-2
24 Oct 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-1
20 Oct 2026A Corinthians1-1
11 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo1-2
08 Oct 2026H Chapecoense-sc4-0

Fluminense

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
28 Oct 2026H Internacional2-1
24 Oct 2026A Chapecoense-sc1-2
18 Oct 2026H Santos1-2
11 Oct 2026A Flamengo0-1
09 Oct 2026H Coritiba4-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 71% · edge +3.5 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Vitoria to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Vitoria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows both teams scoring and conceding regularly, with Vitoria earning 5 points and Fluminense 6 in their last few matches. Both sides maintain a 60% BTTS rate, reflecting consistent mutual scoring. Fluminense's higher over 2.5 goals rate (80%) compared to Vitoria's 40% suggests they often participate in higher-scoring games, which could influence the match tempo and goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vitoria Over 2.5
80%Fluminense Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.5, with a frequent occurrence of both teams scoring. Fluminense's recent matches show an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating high-tempo games with multiple scoring chances. Vitoria's lower over 2.5 rate of 40% suggests more conservative matches, but combined trends point to a fixture likely to feature goals from both sides due to attacking intent and defensive gaps.

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