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Sweden crestSweden
v
Greece crestGreece

Friendlies | Thu 04 Jun, 18:00

Sweden v Greece Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sweden face Greece in Friendlies on Thu 04 Jun, 18:00. Greece had produced eye-catching performances during their previous Nations League campaign and appeared to be building towards something significant. They have also managed just two victories across their last nine fixtures dating back to September 2025.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score - Yes Sweden enter this final World Cup tune-up showing a distinct trend under Graham Potter

  • At 15/2, Sweden Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 34%.
  • Sweden hold home advantage and are priced as favourites, while Greece enter as outsiders looking to rebuild international momentum.
  • Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sweden.
  • Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Sweden Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 34% for Sweden Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sweden. Sweden hold home advantage and are priced as favourites, while Greece enter as outsiders looking to rebuild international momentum.

Model chance vs price34% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points.Visible data support
Positive
Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Sweden hold home advantage and are priced as favourites.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sweden Win is the preferred angle because sweden hold home advantage and are priced as favourites, while Greece enter as outsiders looking to rebuild international momentum. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sweden. However, they average that scoring level per game themselves and welcome back Alexander Isak.

Main risk

However, they average 1.6 goals per game themselves and welcome back Alexander Isak.

Key Data Signals

Sweden Win evidence

Sweden hold home advantage and are priced as favourites, while Greece enter as outsiders looking to rebuild international.

Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sweden.

Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Sweden Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Sweden Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sweden1
    Avg goals scored
    Greece0
    Sweden3
    Avg goals conceded
    Greece0.5
    Sweden100%
    BTTS rate
    Greece0%
    Sweden100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Greece0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0.5 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 46%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for Sweden and 0% for Greece, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Sweden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Sweden to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Sweden1
    Avg corners for
    Greece8
    Sweden7
    Avg total corners
    Greece11
    Sweden1
    Avg yellow cards
    Greece2
    Sweden9
    Avg shots
    Greece10
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 60% · edge -3.4 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sweden

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    01 Jun 2026A Norway1-3

    Greece

    DL
    Last 50W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 1L
    31 Mar 2026A Hungary0-0
    27 Mar 2026H Paraguay0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Sweden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Sweden wins
    0Draws
    1Greece wins
    12 Oct 2021Sweden v Greece2-0
    08 Sep 2021Greece v Sweden2-1
    10 Jun 2008Greece v Sweden0-2
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sweden to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Sweden2
    Played
    Greece4
    Sweden1.5
    Avg goals for
    Greece0.5
    Sweden2.5
    Avg goals against
    Greece1
    Sweden0
    Clean sheets
    Greece1
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 50% · edge -16.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Sweden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Season data supports Sweden to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Sweden Over 2.5
    0%Greece Over 2.5
    2.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sweden sit at 100% and Greece sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Sweden v Greece prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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