Football Stats Hub

Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Tue 03 Nov, 22:30

Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 08:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol meet in a Serie A clash where defensive solidity and cautious tactics are likely to dominate. Chapecoense-sc struggles offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game, while conceding heavily at 2.6 goals per match. Mirassol, with a slightly better attack but a stronger defense, concedes only 1 goal per game and has kept a low over 2.5 goals rate this season. Both teams' recent form and tactical setups suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited scoring threat.
  • Mirassol has a strong defensive record, conceding only 1 goal per game and rarely featuring in high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams have low goal averages (Chapecoense-sc 0.6, Mirassol 0.8), supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Head-to-head matches average just 1.2 goals, reflecting tight contests between these sides.
  • Chapecoense-sc’s over 2.5 goals rate is high but likely skewed by outlier matches; Mirassol’s zero over 2.5 rate suggests consistent low scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive tendencies and low scoring averages of both teams. Chapecoense-sc’s poor offensive output combined with Mirassol’s solid defense creates a scenario where few goals are expected. The head-to-head average of 1.2 goals further supports this cautious outlook. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 46.5%, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for a tight, tactical match. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Chapecoense-sc Goals For0.6 per game
Strong positive
Mirassol Goals Against1.0 per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals1.2 goals per match
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Mirassol0% this season
Strong positive
Model Probability61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring profile

“This fixture’s low scoring profile is clear from both teams’ season-long defensive records and the cautious style they adopt. Expect a match where defensive organization limits goal opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited scoring threat.

Both teams have low goal averages (Chapecoense-sc 0.6, Mirassol 0.8), supporting a low-scoring game.

Head-to-head matches average just 1.2 goals, reflecting tight contests between these sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 1.2, indicating a trend of low-scoring matches.
  • This sample suggests a slow tempo with limited attacking breakthroughs.
  • The trend supports a game where Over 2.5 Goals is unlikely, reinforcing the tactical and defensive nature of this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc0.6
Avg goals scored
Mirassol0.8
Chapecoense-sc2.6
Avg goals conceded
Mirassol1
Chapecoense-sc40%
BTTS rate
Mirassol40%
Chapecoense-sc80%
Over 2.5 goals
Mirassol0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams average fewer than one goal per game, and Mirassol has not exceeded 2.5 goals in any match this season. The head-to-head average of 1.2 goals further confirms a trend of low scoring. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating that while goals can occur, they are limited and unlikely to push totals beyond 2.5.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionMirassol Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +14.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Mirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 61.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Chapecoense-sc and 0% for Mirassol, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
28 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino0-3
24 Oct 2026H Fluminense2-1
17 Oct 2026A Botafogo0-1
12 Oct 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-4
08 Oct 2026A Vitoria0-4

Mirassol

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
30 Oct 2026A Corinthians0-2
24 Oct 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
17 Oct 2026H Internacional2-0
11 Oct 2026A Bahia0-1
07 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino1-1
Best odds for this sectionMirassol Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +14.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Mirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Chapecoense-sc has earned only 3 points recently with a low scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game, while Mirassol has 5 points and concedes fewer goals. Chapecoense-sc’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate is misleading due to a small sample of high-scoring matches, whereas Mirassol’s consistent low scoring form supports the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
0%Mirassol Over 2.5
1.2H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals scored is 1.2, indicating a trend of low-scoring matches. This sample suggests a slow tempo with limited attacking breakthroughs. The trend supports a game where Over 2.5 Goals is unlikely, reinforcing the tactical and defensive nature of this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…