Football Stats Hub

Novara crestNovara
v
Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A | Mon 02 Nov, 19:30

Novara v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 07:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone A fixture features Novara hosting Desenzano Calvina, with both sides seeking to improve their league standing. Desenzano Calvina arrives in better recent form, having secured 7 points compared to Novara's 4 in their last matches. Novara has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.8 goals per game, while conceding 1.8, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. Desenzano Calvina's more balanced attack and defense, combined with their higher league position, set the stage for a competitive contest with potential for an away win.

BT4Y best bet

Desenzano Calvina to Win

  • Desenzano Calvina holds a higher league position (11th vs 16th) and more points (13 vs 10).
  • Desenzano Calvina averages 1.2 goals scored per game, outpacing Novara's 0.8.
  • Novara concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty compared to Desenzano Calvina's 1.4.
  • Desenzano Calvina has a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking potency.
  • Recent form favors Desenzano Calvina with 7 points from last matches versus Novara's 4.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Desenzano Calvina to win with a 58.6% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, better goal-scoring record, and stronger defensive stats compared to Novara. The implied of 3.5 offer significant value given the model's estimate, highlighting a clear edge. Desenzano Calvina's higher over 2.5 goals rate also suggests they can capitalize on Novara's defensive weaknesses. No data limitations affect in this pick, making it a solid choice based on current performance metrics.

Model Win Probability58.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance43.6% model chance vs 28.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Goal Scoring ComparisonDesenzano Calvina 1.2 vs Novara 0.8
Positive
Defensive StabilityDesenzano Calvina concedes 1.4 vs Novara 1.8
Positive
Recent Form PointsDesenzano Calvina 7 vs Novara 4
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Desenzano Calvina's superior recent form and more balanced attack-defense profile make them the logical choice for victory. Their ability to score more consistently and concede fewer goals than Novara underpins this selection, reflecting both tactical effectiveness and current momentum.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Away win rationale

“Desenzano Calvina's consistent offensive output combined with Novara's defensive struggles creates a compelling case for an away win. The statistical edge in goals scored and conceded aligns with the tactical scenario expected in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Desenzano Calvina to Win evidence

Desenzano Calvina holds a higher league position (11th vs 16th) and more points (13 vs 10).

Desenzano Calvina averages 1.2 goals scored per game, outpacing Novara's 0.8.

Novara concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty compared to Desenzano Calvina's 1.4.

Desenzano Calvina has a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, suggesting attacking potency.

What To Watch In The Data

Desenzano Calvina to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, Desenzano Calvina's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Novara's 40%, indicating a higher tempo and attacking openness in their games.
  • This trend suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novara0.8
Avg goals scored
Desenzano Calvina1.2
Novara1.8
Avg goals conceded
Desenzano Calvina1.4
Novara40%
BTTS rate
Desenzano Calvina60%
Novara40%
Over 2.5 goals
Desenzano Calvina60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Desenzano Calvina's matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. Novara's defensive record of conceding 1.8 goals per game supports the likelihood of goals, while their lower BTTS rate suggests some defensive lapses but less consistent scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 43.6% for Desenzano Calvina to Win sits against roughly 28.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Desenzano Calvina have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Novara.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novara

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
25 Oct 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo0-2
18 Oct 2026A Albinoleffe2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cittadella0-2
04 Oct 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
26 Sep 2026H Ospitaletto0-2

Desenzano Calvina

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
25 Oct 2026H Giana Erminio1-2
18 Oct 2026A Alcione1-4
10 Oct 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi2-0
03 Oct 2026A Folgore Caratese2-1
26 Sep 2026H Juventus U230-0
Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Desenzano Calvina's recent form, with 7 points gained, contrasts with Novara's 4 points, reflecting better momentum and . This form difference is reinforced by their superior goal-scoring and defensive records, suggesting they are more likely to control the match tempo and pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Novara Over 2.5
60%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, Desenzano Calvina's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Novara's 40%, indicating a higher tempo and attacking openness in their games. This trend suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals.

Loading deeper match data…