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Ekstraklasa | Mon 02 Nov, 19:30

Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pogon Szczecin visits Raków Częstochowa in this Ekstraklasa clash with a clear form advantage and tactical edge. Pogon sits fourth with 24 points, showcasing a solid defensive record conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Raków struggles at the bottom with only 6 points and a leaky defense allowing 2.6 goals per match. Pogon's more efficient attack averaging 2.2 goals per game contrasts with Raków's 1.6, suggesting Pogon's balanced approach and recent momentum could secure a valuable away victory in this challenging fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Pogon Szczecin to Win

  • Pogon Szczecin ranks 4th with 24 points, Raków 18th with 6 points
  • Pogon concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Raków concedes 2.6
  • Pogon averages 2.2 goals scored per match, Raków 1.6
  • Raków has 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates, Pogon lower but more defensively solid
  • Pogon’s key attackers Grosicki and Nsame show strong shot and goal threat metrics

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Pogon Szczecin to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive solidity, and attacking efficiency. Pogon's low goals conceded rate (0.8 per game) and higher points tally underline their consistency, while Raków's defensive vulnerabilities and poor form weaken their chances. The at 2.8 offer a positive of 34.3%, making Pogon a strong pick based on data and tactical context. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Pogon Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Raków Defensive Weakness2.6 goals conceded per game
Negative
Value Edge47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsPogon 15 vs Raków 3
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pogon Szczecin’s superior defensive record and recent form make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their ability to limit goals conceded while producing efficient attacking chances contrasts with Raków’s struggles at both ends. This combination of tactical balance and momentum supports backing Pogon to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Pogon’s defensive resilience and attacking efficiency give them a clear edge over Raków, who have struggled to keep clean sheets and convert chances consistently this season.”

Key Data Signals

Pogon Szczecin to Win evidence

Pogon Szczecin ranks 4th with 24 points, Raków 18th with 6 points

Pogon concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Raków concedes 2.6

Pogon averages 2.2 goals scored per match, Raków 1.6

Raków has 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates, Pogon lower but more defensively solid

What To Watch In The Data

Pogon Szczecin to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 1.8 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate.
  • Raków’s 100% Over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Pogon’s 40%, suggesting that while Raków games tend to be open, Pogon’s defensive approach may temper the overall goal count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Raków Częstochowa1.6
Avg goals scored
Pogon Szczecin2.2
Raków Częstochowa2.6
Avg goals conceded
Pogon Szczecin0.8
Raków Częstochowa100%
BTTS rate
Pogon Szczecin40%
Raków Częstochowa100%
Over 2.5 goals
Pogon Szczecin40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Raków’s matches have seen 100% rates for both BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Pogon’s lower BTTS and Over 2.5 rates reflect a more controlled style. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Pogon’s defensive discipline could limit Raków’s scoring, while Pogon’s attack exploits defensive gaps.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 47.3% for Pogon Szczecin to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 3 for Raków Częstochowa.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Raków Częstochowa

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 8L
24 Oct 2026A Wisla Krakow1-2
16 Oct 2026A Wieczysta Kraków2-1
09 Oct 2026H GKS Katowice1-4
19 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-3
15 Sep 2026H Zaglebie Lubin2-3

Pogon Szczecin

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
24 Oct 2026H Radomiak Radom4-3
17 Oct 2026A GKS Katowice1-0
11 Oct 2026H Korona Kielce2-0
20 Sep 2026A Piast Gliwice2-1
13 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Pogon Szczecin’s recent form is markedly better, accumulating 15 points compared to Raków’s 3 in the same period. Pogon’s defensive solidity and consistent goal scoring underpin this form gap, making them the more confident side heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
40%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 1.8 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate. Raków’s 100% Over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Pogon’s 40%, suggesting that while Raków games tend to be open, Pogon’s defensive approach may temper the overall goal count in this fixture.

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