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Casarano crestCasarano
v
Foggia crestFoggia

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 02 Nov, 19:30

Casarano v Foggia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 07:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone C clash features Casarano hosting Foggia in a tightly contested fixture where both sides sit mid-lower table with 14 points each. Foggia arrives with better recent form, having secured 9 points compared to Casarano's 4 in their last matches. Foggia's more potent attack averaging 1.4 goals per game contrasts with Casarano's 0.6, while defensively Foggia concedes slightly less. The match promises tactical discipline from Casarano but Foggia's momentum and sharper finishing could prove decisive in this balanced contest.

BT4Y best bet

Foggia to Win

  • Foggia has a strong recent form advantage with 9 points vs Casarano's 4.
  • Foggia averages 1.4 goals per game, more than double Casarano's 0.6.
  • Both teams have similar league points (14), indicating a close table battle.
  • Foggia concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) than Casarano (1.6), showing defensive resilience.
  • Foggia's Over 2.5 goals rate (40%) is double Casarano's (20%), suggesting more open play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Foggia to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Foggia's higher goal scoring rate and better defensive record underpin this . The price at 2.8 offers strong value given the implied chance of 35.7%. The balanced league standings add context but Foggia's momentum and efficiency in front of goal make them the more likely winners. No data limitations affect this view, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent form advantageStrong (9 points vs 4)
Strong positive
Goal scoring rateFoggia 1.4 vs Casarano 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive solidityFoggia concedes 1.2 vs Casarano 1.6
Positive
Price value50.7% model chance vs 35.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data qualityGood data coverage for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Foggia's recent form and sharper attack give them a tactical and statistical edge over Casarano. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive stability suggests they are well placed to secure victory in this tightly matched Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Foggia's momentum and efficiency in front of goal make them the clear favorites despite the close league standings, as their recent performances show a team capable of controlling matches and capitalizing on chances.”

Key Data Signals

Foggia to Win evidence

Foggia has a strong recent form advantage with 9 points vs Casarano's 4.

Foggia averages 1.4 goals per game, more than double Casarano's 0.6.

Both teams have similar league points (14), indicating a close table battle.

Foggia concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) than Casarano (1.6), showing defensive resilience.

What To Watch In The Data

Foggia to Win notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderately low-scoring games.
  • However, Foggia's recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 40% indicates a potential for a more open and higher tempo match in this fixture, increasing goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casarano0.6
Avg goals scored
Foggia1.4
Casarano1.6
Avg goals conceded
Foggia1.2
Casarano20%
BTTS rate
Foggia40%
Casarano20%
Over 2.5 goals
Foggia40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Foggia's higher average goals per game (1.4) and 40% Over 2.5 goals rate suggest a more open attacking style compared to Casarano's conservative 0.6 goals and 20% Over 2.5 rate. Both teams have low BTTS rates, indicating cautious defensive approaches but Foggia's offense could break through.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casarano

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
26 Oct 2026A Crotone1-0
18 Oct 2026A Cavese2-5
11 Oct 2026H Salernitana0-0
03 Oct 2026A Sorrento0-2
27 Sep 2026H SS Monopoli0-1

Foggia

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
25 Oct 2026H Cavese1-0
19 Oct 2026A Giugliano1-3
11 Oct 2026H Potenza1-3
04 Oct 2026A Cosenza2-0
27 Sep 2026H Sorrento2-0
Market aligned with main pickFoggia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Foggia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Foggia's recent accumulation of 9 points compared to Casarano's 4 highlights a clear momentum advantage. This form difference suggests Foggia is more confident and effective in converting opportunities, which could be decisive in a close league encounter.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFoggia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Foggia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 50.7% for Foggia to Win sits against roughly 35.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Foggia have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Casarano.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Casarano Over 2.5
40%Foggia Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderately low-scoring games. However, Foggia's recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 40% indicates a potential for a more open and higher tempo match in this fixture, increasing goal-scoring opportunities.

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