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Charlton crestCharlton
v
Bolton crestBolton

Championship | Tue 03 Nov, 19:45

Charlton v Bolton Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 13:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charlton and Bolton meet at The Valley in a crucial Championship clash as both teams fight to escape the relegation zone. Charlton are enduring a 10-match winless run, struggling to score with just 0.85 goals per game, while Bolton arrive with better momentum, having collected seven points from their last three away matches. Bolton's attacking threat contrasts with Charlton's defensive resilience at home, where they have lost only once in six league games. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Bolton's offensive ambition against Charlton's need to restore defensive solidity amid recent setbacks.

BT4Y best bet

Bolton to Win

  • Bolton have earned seven points from their last three away league fixtures, showing strong road form.
  • Charlton are on a 10-match winless streak with just five points since early September.
  • Bolton average 1.38 goals per league game, outscoring Charlton's 0.85 goals per game.
  • Charlton have lost only one of six home league matches, indicating some home resilience.
  • 69% of Bolton's Championship matches have featured over 2.5 goals, suggesting open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Bolton to win based on their superior recent away form and attacking output. Bolton's seven points from three away matches, including wins over Norwich and Wolves, contrast with Charlton's 10-match winless run and low scoring rate. Despite Bolton's defensive vulnerabilities, their ability to score 1.38 goals per game and pressure Charlton's defense, which concedes 1.62 goals per match, gives them an edge. The current of 3.0 offer good value, reflecting a 20.6% over the implied chance. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Recent Away Form7 points from last 3 away matches
Strong positive
Attacking OutputBolton 1.38 goals/game vs Charlton 0.85
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilityBolton concede 2.0 goals/game
Neutral
Home ResilienceCharlton lost 1 of 6 home matches
Neutral
Odds Value Edge47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bolton's recent away performances and attacking strength position them well to overcome Charlton's home resilience. Charlton's prolonged scoring struggles and winless streak contrast with Bolton's momentum, making an away win the most plausible outcome. Bolton's ability to capitalize on defensive weaknesses and maintain pressure should secure the victory.

Main risk

However, The Valley offers some encouragement.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bolton's attacking momentum and recent success away from home provide a clear tactical advantage over a Charlton side struggling to find the net and break their winless run.”

Key Data Signals

Bolton to Win evidence

Bolton have earned seven points from their last three away league fixtures, showing strong road form.

Charlton are on a 10-match winless streak with just five points since early September.

Bolton average 1.38 goals per league game, outscoring Charlton's 0.85 goals per game.

Charlton have lost only one of six home league matches, indicating some home resilience.

What To Watch In The Data

Bolton to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters.
  • Bolton's recent matches have seen 80% over 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking style and defensive openness, suggesting this fixture is likely to follow a similar pattern with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Charlton0.8
Avg goals scored
Bolton1.4
Charlton2.2
Avg goals conceded
Bolton2.2
Charlton60%
BTTS rate
Bolton80%
Charlton60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bolton80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 87%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Bolton's matches have featured over 2.5 goals in 80% of their recent games, while Charlton's rate is 60%. Bolton's average of 1.38 goals per game and Charlton's defensive concessions suggest a match likely to produce multiple goals, supporting an Over 2.5 Goals scenario driven by Bolton's attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisfull betting preview for Charlton v Boltoncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBolton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The 47.3% for Bolton to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bolton have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Charlton. Charlton’s limited attacking output makes a single goal their realistic ceiling, while Bolton’s average of 1.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Charlton

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 5D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Middlesbrough0-3
24 Oct 2026H Norwich1-3
17 Oct 2026A Watford0-2
13 Oct 2026A Burnley2-2
10 Oct 2026H Bristol City1-1

Bolton

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
31 Oct 2026H Bristol City2-3
23 Oct 2026H Middlesbrough1-5
17 Oct 2026A Southampton0-0
13 Oct 2026A Wolves3-1
10 Oct 2026H Stoke City1-2
Market aligned with main pickBolton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Bolton's recent form is markedly better, with four points gained in their last matches and a strong away record yielding seven points from three games. Charlton's form is poor, with only two points from recent matches and a 10-game winless streak. This contrast in momentum favors Bolton's and ability to control the match tempo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Charlton Over 2.5
80%Bolton Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters. Bolton's recent matches have seen 80% over 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking style and defensive openness, suggesting this fixture is likely to follow a similar pattern with multiple goals.

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