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Zaglebie Lubin crestZaglebie Lubin
v
Korona Kielce crestKorona Kielce

Ekstraklasa | Mon 02 Nov, 17:00

Zaglebie Lubin v Korona Kielce Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Zaglebie Lubin hosts Korona Kielce in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides are closely matched in the league table, sitting 8th and 10th respectively. Zaglebie Lubin has shown slightly better recent form and attacking output, scoring 1.4 goals per game compared to Korona Kielce's 1.0, while conceding fewer goals. The fixture promises a competitive encounter with Zaglebie Lubin aiming to capitalize on home advantage and recent momentum to secure a vital win in a tight mid-table battle.

BT4Y best bet

Zaglebie Lubin to Win

  • Zaglebie Lubin holds a narrow league points advantage (19 vs 18) over Korona Kielce.
  • Lubin averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking potential.
  • Korona Kielce concedes more goals on average (2.4 per game) than Lubin (1.8), suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Lubin's recent form yields 7 points compared to Korona's 6, showing slightly better momentum.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, supporting a moderately open game scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Zaglebie Lubin to win based on a 53.2% chance, reflecting their stronger recent form and home advantage. Lubin's attack is more productive and their defense more resilient than Korona Kielce's, who concede heavily. The 2.5 offer positive value with a 13.2% edge over the implied market chance. While Korona Kielce's shot volume is higher, Lubin's efficiency and home conditions tilt the balance. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value bet with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance53.2% model chance vs 40% implied (+13.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance53.2% model chance vs 40% implied (+13.2 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge53.2% model chance vs 40% implied (+13.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormLubin slightly better (7 vs 6 points)
Positive
Defensive RecordLubin concedes fewer goals (1.8 vs 2.4)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Zaglebie Lubin's home form and slightly superior recent performances make them the logical choice to win this close Ekstraklasa fixture. Their better defensive record and goal-scoring rate provide a tactical and statistical edge over Korona Kielce, who have struggled defensively despite creating more shots.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Zaglebie Lubin's balanced attack and improved defensive discipline give them a tactical advantage in this mid-table clash, making them a sensible pick for the win.”

Key Data Signals

Zaglebie Lubin to Win evidence

Zaglebie Lubin holds a narrow league points advantage (19 vs 18) over Korona Kielce.

Lubin averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking potential.

Korona Kielce concedes more goals on average (2.4 per game) than Lubin (1.8), suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

Lubin's recent form yields 7 points compared to Korona's 6, showing slightly better momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Zaglebie Lubin to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average of 2.3 goals per game and Lubin's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate suggest a tendency toward open, attacking matches.
  • This trend indicates a decent tempo and chance creation from both sides, making goal-scoring opportunities likely and supporting an expectation of a lively encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Zaglebie Lubin1.4
Avg goals scored
Korona Kielce1
Zaglebie Lubin1.8
Avg goals conceded
Korona Kielce2.4
Zaglebie Lubin60%
BTTS rate
Korona Kielce40%
Zaglebie Lubin60%
Over 2.5 goals
Korona Kielce40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown moderate scoring ability, with Lubin averaging 1.4 goals and Korona Kielce 1.0 per game. Lubin's 60% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates indicate openness in attack, while Korona's defensive frailties suggest goals are likely. The 2.3 average goals in their last 10 meetings further support the potential for a goal-rich game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Zaglebie Lubin

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
23 Oct 2026A Motor Lublin2-2
18 Oct 2026H Jagiellonia1-0
10 Oct 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-3
20 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock0-2
15 Sep 2026A Raków Częstochowa3-2

Korona Kielce

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026H GKS Katowice1-0
18 Oct 2026A Lech Poznan1-6
11 Oct 2026A Pogon Szczecin0-2
19 Sep 2026H Raków Częstochowa3-2
15 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze0-2
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 40% · edge +13.2 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Zaglebie Lubin's recent form shows a slight edge with 7 points gained compared to Korona Kielce's 6 in their last matches. Lubin's ability to score more consistently and concede fewer goals reflects a more balanced and effective approach, which could prove decisive in a tight contest where momentum and matter.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 40% · edge +13.2 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 53.2% for Zaglebie Lubin to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+13.2 pts). Zaglebie Lubin have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Korona Kielce.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5
40%Korona Kielce Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average of 2.3 goals per game and Lubin's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate suggest a tendency toward open, attacking matches. This trend indicates a decent tempo and chance creation from both sides, making goal-scoring opportunities likely and supporting an expectation of a lively encounter.

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