Football Stats Hub

Atalanta crestAtalanta
v
Parma crestParma

Serie A | Mon 02 Nov, 19:45

Atalanta v Parma Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 17:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta hosts Parma in a Serie A clash where goal-scoring potential is high despite Atalanta's mid-table standing and Parma's relegation zone position. Atalanta's recent matches show a strong attacking output, averaging 2.2 goals per game, while Parma struggles offensively with 0.6 goals per game. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open game likely influenced by Atalanta's offensive style and Parma's defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture promises attacking intent and goal opportunities from both sides, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Atalanta Asian Handicap -1

  • Atalanta averages 2.2 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Parma scores 0.6 goals per game but also has 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, showing defensive frailty.
  • Head-to-head average goals per match is 4.2 across last 10 meetings, indicating high-scoring history.
  • Atalanta averages 15.4 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, reflecting strong offensive pressure.
  • Parma concedes 1.8 goals per game, suggesting defensive weaknesses that Atalanta can exploit.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at a 74.9% chance, supported by both teams' high scoring and conceding rates. Atalanta's offensive firepower, led by key attackers like N. Krstović with 6 goals and 1.84 shots on target per 90 minutes, combines with Parma's defensive struggles to create a fertile environment for goals. The strong historical average of 4.2 goals per match in their head-to-head meetings further reinforces this. The current offer positive value with a 13.2% edge, making Over 2.5 Goals an attractive selection for this fixture.

Atalanta attacking output2.2 goals/game, 15.4 shots/game
Strong positive
Parma defensive weakness1.8 goals conceded/game
Positive
Head-to-head goal average4.2 goals per match
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied chance58.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with Atalanta's attacking talents, including N. Scamacca, pushing to exploit Parma's defensive vulnerabilities. Parma's lower scoring rate and defensive lapses suggest they may concede multiple goals, supporting a high-scoring game. The data and tactical outlook align well with an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.

Main risk

Those results highlight an increasingly obvious problem: Atalanta are scoring regularly but conceding too frequently.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical matchup

“Atalanta's offensive intensity combined with Parma's defensive frailties creates a clear pathway for goals in this fixture. The attacking roles and shot volumes from Atalanta's key players make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Atalanta Asian Handicap -1 evidence

Atalanta averages 2.2 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.

Parma scores 0.6 goals per game but also has 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, showing defensive frailty.

Head-to-head average goals per match is 4.2 across last 10 meetings, indicating high-scoring history.

Atalanta averages 15.4 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, reflecting strong offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Atalanta Asian Handicap -1 notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4.2 goals per game, a notably high figure indicating a history of open, attacking encounters.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, suggests a continuation of high-tempo, goal-laden matches in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta2.2
Avg goals scored
Parma0.6
Atalanta2.4
Avg goals conceded
Parma1.8
Atalanta80%
BTTS rate
Parma40%
Atalanta80%
Over 2.5 goals
Parma80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates: Atalanta at 80% and Parma at 40%, indicating Atalanta consistently scores and concedes, while Parma less frequently scores but concedes regularly. Combined with high goals per game averages, this suggests a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals, though BTTS is less certain due to Parma's lower scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Parma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Atalanta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Atalanta to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 58.6% for Atalanta Asian Handicap -1 sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+6 pts). Parma's limited attack and history of failing to score in Bergamo support Atalanta clearing the Asian Handicap -1 line despite defensive risks.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
29 Oct 2026A Fiorentina2-2
25 Oct 2026H Frosinone4-4
18 Oct 2026A AC Milan2-3
12 Oct 2026H Venezia3-1
20 Sep 2026A Juventus0-2

Parma

DLLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 6L
28 Oct 2026H Udinese0-0
24 Oct 2026A Lazio1-2
19 Oct 2026H Torino0-3
10 Oct 2026A Inter0-3
20 Sep 2026H Genoa2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.6 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Parma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Atalanta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Atalanta to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Recent form shows Atalanta with 5 points from recent matches and a high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80%, reflecting their attacking consistency. Parma's 4 points and matching 80% Over 2.5 rate underline their vulnerability in defense and occasional offensive output, reinforcing the expectation of a goal-rich match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Atalanta Over 2.5
80%Parma Over 2.5
4.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4.2 goals per game, a notably high figure indicating a history of open, attacking encounters. This trend, combined with both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, suggests a continuation of high-tempo, goal-laden matches in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…