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Anaitasuna crestAnaitasuna
v
Alaves crestAlaves

Copa del Rey | Wed 28 Oct, 18:00

Anaitasuna v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Anaitasuna hosts Alaves in this Copa del Rey clash, with Anaitasuna showing strong recent form including 6 points from their last matches and a solid defensive record, conceding just once while scoring five goals. Alaves arrive with limited recent data and no points from their last outings, facing a tough challenge against a confident and attacking Anaitasuna side. The cup setting adds intensity, and Anaitasuna's home advantage and momentum position them as favorites in a fixture where Alaves' attacking threats remain uncertain due to thinner data and form concerns.

BT4Y best bet

Anaitasuna to Win

  • Anaitasuna has won recent matches with a strong goal difference (5 scored, 1 conceded).
  • Alaves have no recent points and limited available data, increasing uncertainty about their form.
  • Anaitasuna's recent matches all went over 2.5 goals, showing attacking potency.
  • Alaves' attacking players like L. Díaz have good individual stats but team form is lacking.
  • The Copa del Rey context intensifies the stakes, favoring the in-form home side.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Anaitasuna to win, reflecting their recent strong form and defensive solidity. The implied of 26.0 offer significant value compared to the market price, highlighting a clear edge. Despite limited data on Alaves, Anaitasuna's consistent goal scoring and clean sheet record in recent matches underpin in their victory. The model's high score (88) supports backing the home side, while acknowledging the thinner sample for Alaves means match-day factors and line-ups could influence the outcome.

Recent formAnaitasuna 6 points, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied odds9.7% model chance vs 3.8% implied (+5.9 pts)
Strong positive
Data qualityLimited data for Alaves increases uncertainty
Neutral
Confidence level88% confidence in model pick
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Anaitasuna's recent attacking efficiency and defensive resilience make them the clear favorite to win this Copa del Rey tie. Their momentum and home advantage contrast with Alaves' uncertain form and limited data, suggesting that Anaitasuna's consistency and will be decisive in securing victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Anaitasuna's strong recent performances and goal-scoring form give them a tactical and statistical edge in this cup fixture, especially given Alaves' lack of recent momentum and thinner data sample.”

Key Data Signals

Anaitasuna to Win evidence

Anaitasuna has won recent matches with a strong goal difference (5 scored, 1 conceded).

Alaves have no recent points and limited available data, increasing uncertainty about their form.

Anaitasuna's recent matches all went over 2.5 goals, showing attacking potency.

Alaves' attacking players like L. Díaz have good individual stats but team form is lacking.

What To Watch In The Data

Anaitasuna to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Anaitasuna's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking tempo and ability to create chances.
  • The lack of head-to-head history means these trends are more indicative of Anaitasuna's style than direct matchup patterns.
  • This suggests a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities, favoring the home side's offensive strengths.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Anaitasuna

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
03 Oct 2026A Tedeón5-2
26 Sep 2026H Tedeón5-0

Alaves

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Alaves yet.

Market aligned with main pickAnaitasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 10% vs implied 4% · edge +5.9 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
Anaitasuna's recent form is impressive, with 6 points gained and a strong goal difference (5 scored, 1 conceded). This contrasts sharply with Alaves, who have no recent points and limited data, indicating a lack of momentum. The form data supports in Anaitasuna's ability to control the match and secure a win in this cup fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Anaitasuna5
Avg goals scored
Alaves-
Anaitasuna1
Avg goals conceded
Alaves-
Anaitasuna50%
BTTS rate
Alaves-
Anaitasuna100%
Over 2.5 goals
Alaves-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Anaitasuna's recent matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, scoring 5 and conceding just 1 in their last outings, showing a balance of attacking threat and defensive control. Alaves' goal data is sparse, but their key attackers like L. Boyé have good individual scoring stats. This suggests potential for goals from both sides but with Anaitasuna's control likely to prevail.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAnaitasuna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 10% vs implied 4% · edge +5.9 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
The 9.7% for Anaitasuna to Win sits against roughly 3.8% implied by the current price (+5.9 pts). Anaitasuna have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Alaves.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Anaitasuna Over 2.5
-Alaves Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Anaitasuna's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking tempo and ability to create chances. The lack of head-to-head history means these trends are more indicative of Anaitasuna's style than direct matchup patterns. This suggests a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities, favoring the home side's offensive strengths.

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