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QPR crestQPR
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Tue 03 Nov, 19:45

QPR v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 11:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

QPR and Burnley meet in a Championship clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. QPR, sitting mid-table, have shown a willingness to push forward, averaging 2.2 goals scored per game recently, while Burnley, struggling near the bottom, still manage 1.6 goals per match. Both teams have a history of open play and goal-scoring opportunities, suggesting a lively encounter. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, combined with their recent scoring rates, set the stage for a potentially high-scoring fixture under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • QPR and Burnley both have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently.
  • QPR averages 10.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target; Burnley averages 15.2 shots with 4.8 on target.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings.
  • QPR concedes 1.8 goals per game, Burnley concedes 1.6, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Top attackers like Z. Flemming (Burnley) and R. Kone (QPR) show strong goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 65.5% chance, reflecting both teams' attacking profiles and defensive lapses. QPR and Burnley each have an 80% recent rate of games surpassing 2.5 goals, supported by high shot volumes and goal averages. Key attackers such as Z. Kone contribute significantly to shot and goal metrics, enhancing scoring potential. The implied offer a small positive , making this a compelling selection based on current form and player impact.

Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Average Shots per GameQPR 10.4, Burnley 15.2
Positive
Key Player Goal ThreatZ. Flemming 1.07 goals/90, R. Kone 0.87 goals/90
Strong positive
Defensive Concession RateQPR 1.8, Burnley 1.6 goals per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.5 goals over last 10 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both QPR and Burnley pushing forward to find goals. QPR's recent attacking form combined with Burnley's willingness to commit players forward suggests multiple scoring chances. The data supports a lively match where Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible call given the attacking talents and defensive vulnerabilities on display.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with clear attacking intent and defensive gaps, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. Key attackers like Flemming and Kone provide the firepower to break through, promising an engaging, goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

QPR and Burnley both have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently.

QPR averages 10.4 shots per game with 4.2 on target; Burnley averages 15.2 shots with 4.8 on target.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings.

QPR concedes 1.8 goals per game, Burnley concedes 1.6, indicating defensive frailties.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.5, aligning with recent form trends.
  • Both teams have consistently participated in high-tempo matches with frequent goal opportunities.
  • This trend panel confirms the likelihood of a lively fixture with multiple goals, driven by attacking play and defensive lapses on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

QPR2.2
Avg goals scored
Burnley1.6
QPR1.8
Avg goals conceded
Burnley1.6
QPR60%
BTTS rate
Burnley60%
QPR80%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both QPR and Burnley have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, with both teams scoring in 60% of their games. Their attacking output combined with defensive concessions supports a high-scoring match scenario. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals further reinforces the likelihood of multiple goals and potential BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
QPR Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
QPR to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Burnley Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 65.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for QPR and 80% for Burnley, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

QPR

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
31 Oct 2026A Southampton1-4
24 Oct 2026H Swansea5-0
17 Oct 2026A Birmingham0-3
14 Oct 2026H Derby4-1
09 Oct 2026A West Ham1-1

Burnley

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Portsmouth0-0
24 Oct 2026A Lincoln1-4
16 Oct 2026H Wolves1-2
13 Oct 2026H Charlton2-2
10 Oct 2026A Watford4-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 81% vs implied 75% · edge +6 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
QPR Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
QPR to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Burnley Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows QPR scoring 2.2 goals per game and Burnley 1.6, with both sides involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals 80% of the time. This attacking momentum suggests a continuation of goal-rich encounters. Defensive concessions averaging around 1.7 goals per game for both teams further support the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%QPR Over 2.5
80%Burnley Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored stand at 2.5, aligning with recent form trends. Both teams have consistently participated in high-tempo matches with frequent goal opportunities. This trend panel confirms the likelihood of a lively fixture with multiple goals, driven by attacking play and defensive lapses on both sides.

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