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Atletico Tucuman crestAtletico Tucuman
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Argentinos JRS crestArgentinos JRS

Liga Profesional Argentina | Tue 03 Nov, 00:15

Atletico Tucuman v Argentinos JRS Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Argentinos JRS approach this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture in strong form, sitting second in the standings with 28 points, significantly ahead of Atletico Tucuman who are tenth with 17 points. Argentinos JRS have displayed defensive solidity, conceding only 0.6 goals per game recently, while Atletico Tucuman have struggled defensively, allowing 1.6 goals per match. The away side's tactical discipline and efficient attack, combined with their superior recent points haul, set the stage for a competitive match where Argentinos JRS look poised to capitalize on their momentum and tactical strengths.

BT4Y best bet

Argentinos JRS to Win

  • Argentinos JRS rank 2nd with 28 points, Atletico Tucuman 10th with 17 points
  • Argentinos JRS concede just 0.6 goals per game recently versus 1.6 for Atletico Tucuman
  • Argentinos JRS average 12 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking threat
  • Atletico Tucuman have a higher BTTS rate (60%) but weaker defensive record
  • Argentinos JRS have a strong recent form with 10 points in last matches compared to 4 for Atletico Tucuman

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Argentinos JRS to win with a 69.7% chance, reflecting their superior league position, recent form, and defensive record. Their low goals conceded rate (0.6 per game) and efficient attacking output underpin this . The of 2.62 offer significant value given the implied chance of 38.2%, highlighting a clear edge. The model also accounts for Atletico Tucuman's defensive vulnerabilities and lower recent points tally, reinforcing the away win as the most probable outcome. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Win Probability69.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormArgentinos JRS concede 0.6 goals/game
Strong positive
Recent PointsArgentinos JRS 10 vs Atletico Tucuman 4
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Argentinos JRS's tactical discipline and defensive strength make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their recent form and superior league standing provide a solid statistical foundation for this pick, suggesting they can control the game and exploit Atletico Tucuman's defensive weaknesses effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Argentinos JRS combine tactical solidity with efficient attacking, making them well-placed to capitalize on Atletico Tucuman's defensive lapses and secure a valuable away win.”

Key Data Signals

Argentinos JRS to Win evidence

Argentinos JRS rank 2nd with 28 points, Atletico Tucuman 10th with 17 points

Argentinos JRS concede just 0.6 goals per game recently versus 1.6 for Atletico Tucuman

Argentinos JRS average 12 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking threat

Atletico Tucuman have a higher BTTS rate (60%) but weaker defensive record

What To Watch In The Data

Argentinos JRS to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately open game tempo.
  • However, Argentinos JRS's recent defensive solidity suggests a more controlled match with fewer goals likely, aligning with their lower over 2.5 goals rate of 20% compared to Atletico Tucuman's 40%.
  • This trend points to a tactical game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Tucuman1.2
Avg goals scored
Argentinos JRS1
Atletico Tucuman1.6
Avg goals conceded
Argentinos JRS0.6
Atletico Tucuman60%
BTTS rate
Argentinos JRS40%
Atletico Tucuman40%
Over 2.5 goals
Argentinos JRS20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form shows Atletico Tucuman have a 60% BTTS rate and average 1.2 goals per game, while Argentinos JRS have a lower BTTS rate of 40% and concede only 0.6 goals per game. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals but a stronger defensive setup from Argentinos JRS, indicating a controlled game with potential for a low to moderate scoring outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Tucuman

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Tigre1-0
18 Oct 2026H Rosario Central2-3
09 Oct 2026A Gimnasia L.P.1-1
03 Oct 2026H Barracas Central2-3
21 Sep 2026A Aldosivi0-1

Argentinos JRS

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
27 Oct 2026H Independ. Rivadavia1-0
17 Oct 2026A Banfield1-0
11 Oct 2026A Platense1-1
04 Oct 2026H Tigre2-1
20 Sep 2026A Rosario Central0-1
Market aligned with main pickArgentinos JRS to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Argentinos JRS Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Argentinos JRS have accumulated 10 points recently, showcasing consistent winning performances and defensive resilience, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Atletico Tucuman's recent form is weaker, with just 4 points and a higher goals conceded rate of 1.6, highlighting a vulnerability that Argentinos JRS can exploit.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArgentinos JRS to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Argentinos JRS Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The 53.2% for Argentinos JRS to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Argentinos JRS have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Atletico Tucuman.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Atletico Tucuman Over 2.5
20%Argentinos JRS Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately open game tempo. However, Argentinos JRS's recent defensive solidity suggests a more controlled match with fewer goals likely, aligning with their lower over 2.5 goals rate of 20% compared to Atletico Tucuman's 40%. This trend points to a tactical game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

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