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Primera A | Tue 03 Nov, 23:20

Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 08:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features Deportivo Pasto hosting Jaguares in a contest where both teams are battling to climb from the lower end of the table. Deportivo Pasto has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.4 goals per game recently, while Jaguares have shown more attacking intent with 1.2 goals per game. Jaguares' recent form is stronger, collecting six points compared to Deportivo Pasto's four in their last five matches. The away side's ability to create more shots and maintain pressure suggests they could exploit Deportivo Pasto's defensive vulnerabilities in this pivotal fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Jaguares to Win

  • Jaguares have a recent form edge with 6 points in last 5 matches versus Deportivo Pasto's 4.
  • Jaguares average 1.2 goals per game recently, significantly higher than Deportivo Pasto's 0.4.
  • Jaguares create more shots (11.6) and shots on target (3.2) per game than Deportivo Pasto (9.4 shots, 2.2 SOT).
  • Deportivo Pasto ranks 20th with 12 points, Jaguares 18th with 13 points, indicating a tight but crucial battle.
  • Jaguares show a 34.2% at 5.5 , reflecting strong model in an away win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Jaguares to win based on their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and greater shot volume compared to Deportivo Pasto. Despite the long of 5.5, the implied chance is only 18.2%, while the model estimates a 52.4% probability, indicating significant value. Jaguares' offensive metrics and slightly better league standing support the expectation they can capitalize on Deportivo Pasto's defensive weaknesses. is high at 88%, reinforcing the strength of this selection.

Recent form pointsJaguares 6 vs Deportivo Pasto 4
Positive
Goals per gameJaguares 1.2 vs Deportivo Pasto 0.4
Strong positive
Shots per gameJaguares 11.6 vs Deportivo Pasto 9.4
Positive
Model confidence88%
Strong positive
Value edge33.2% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Jaguares' recent attacking improvements and better form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory here. Their ability to generate more shots and goals than Deportivo Pasto, combined with a narrow points gap in the standings, suggests they can exploit defensive lapses and claim the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Jaguares' offensive momentum and higher shot volume position them well to overcome Deportivo Pasto's defensive frailties in this crucial fixture, making their win a compelling prospect despite the long .”

Key Data Signals

Jaguares to Win evidence

Jaguares have a recent form edge with 6 points in last 5 matches versus Deportivo Pasto's 4.

Jaguares average 1.2 goals per game recently, significantly higher than Deportivo Pasto's 0.4.

Jaguares create more shots (11.6) and shots on target (3.2) per game than Deportivo Pasto (9.4 shots, 2.2 SOT).

Deportivo Pasto ranks 20th with 12 points, Jaguares 18th with 13 points, indicating a tight but crucial battle.

What To Watch In The Data

Jaguares to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9 per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • However, Jaguares' recent matches show a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a potential for more open play and goal opportunities in this fixture compared to historical trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Pasto0.4
Avg goals scored
Jaguares1.2
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Avg goals conceded
Jaguares1.8
Deportivo Pasto20%
BTTS rate
Jaguares60%
Deportivo Pasto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Jaguares60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent scoring patterns show Jaguares averaging 1.2 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, while Deportivo Pasto struggles with 0.4 goals and only 20% BTTS. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals from Jaguares, but a low chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Deportivo Pasto's offensive struggles and Jaguares' better finishing.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJaguares to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Jaguares Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
The 33.2% for Jaguares to Win sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Jaguares have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Deportivo Pasto.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Pasto

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Bucaramanga1-2
26 Oct 2026A Deportes Tolima1-0
23 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-3
20 Oct 2026H Alianza Valledupar0-1
04 Oct 2026H Fortaleza FC0-0

Jaguares

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
30 Oct 2026A Deportivo Pereira0-1
26 Oct 2026H Llaneros1-0
22 Oct 2026A Santa Fe1-2
18 Oct 2026A Millonarios1-4
11 Oct 2026H Deportes Tolima3-2
Market aligned with main pickJaguares to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jaguares Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Jaguares have collected 6 points in their last five matches, showing improved attacking output and resilience compared to Deportivo Pasto's 4 points and lower goal tally. This recent momentum, combined with Jaguares' ability to create more chances, suggests they are better positioned to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
60%Jaguares Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9 per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. However, Jaguares' recent matches show a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a potential for more open play and goal opportunities in this fixture compared to historical trends.

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